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danielw Moderator Reged: Wed Posts: 3525 Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W) 5 AM Discussion~edited       Fri Jul 08 2005 04:42 AM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 THE EYE BECAME A LITTLE DISRUPTED A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE HURRICANE CROSSED NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA. SINCE THEN...DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE SHALLOW WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OVER A GROUP OF SMALL ISLANDS NAMED...ARCHIPIELAGO DE LA REINA...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A NOAA PLANE JUST CHECKED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 113 KNOTS WITH THE STEPPED FREQUENCY RADIOMETER(SFMR). INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR OVER CUBA BUT DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEN 305 AND 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 TO 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE POWERFULL HURRICANE WILL BE CROSSING CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE UK MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHER WEST AND THE GFS THE FARTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. Full Discussion is available on the Main Page Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 08 2005 04:49 AM) Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Dennis and Cuba MikeC Fri Jul 08 2005 04:42 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba MikeC   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:12 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba MikeC   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:04 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:15 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Wxwatcher2   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Magic Hat   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:32 AM The West Coast will still be somewhat affected Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:41 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Tropics Guy   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:20 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:17 AM Looks to be turning more northerly RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:31 PM Re: Dennis and Cuba bn765   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM update twizted sizter   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:21 AM Recon Plan of the Day Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:04 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Xavier   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:08 AM Polk County,FL links danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:16 AM Re: Polk County,FL links geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:57 AM Cuba Map limks danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:18 AM Re: Cuba Map limks rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:39 AM 5 AM Discussion~edited danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:42 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:11 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:04 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:10 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:17 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited doug   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:28 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:32 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:44 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:55 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:24 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited javlin   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:16 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited doug   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:42 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:47 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:32 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:47 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:22 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:40 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:29 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:53 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:06 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:16 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:25 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:33 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:19 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:38 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Ed G   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:54 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:58 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Shalafi   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:04 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:08 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Ed G   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:32 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:34 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:01 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:55 AM 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:59 AM Dennis Track and Windfield recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:11 AM Re: Dennis Track and Windfield Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:07 AM Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:15 AM Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:17 AM Slow down ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:30 AM Warnings for Central Florida recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:24 AM Re: Warnings for Central Florida Ricreig   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:59 AM Re: Warnings for Central Florida Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:03 AM Re: Warnings for Central Florida Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:12 AM Re: Warnings for Central Florida Katie   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:18 AM Re: Warnings for Central Florida Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:10 AM Re: Warnings for Central Florida TDW   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:13 AM Re: Warnings for Central Florida emilywiseman   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:23 AM Re: Warnings for Central Florida B.C.Francis   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:10 AM Re: Warnings for Central Florida Shalafi   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:09 AM Vortex Message... 938 Millibars! recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:28 AM Special NHC Statement recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:36 AM Re: Special NHC Statement AgentB   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM Re: Special NHC Statement nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:41 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:43 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:51 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:48 AM Re: Special NHC Statement WeatherNut   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:29 AM Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:46 AM Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:51 AM Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery AdvAutoBob   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:19 AM Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:22 AM Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery 317288   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:18 AM SW Florida observations AdvAutoBob   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:44 AM Re: SW Florida observations msmith43   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM Re: Special NHC Statement emilywiseman   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM Mobile Hit tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:46 AM Re: Special NHC Statement palmetto   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:41 AM Re: Special NHC Statement TDW   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:46 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:41 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:39 AM Re: Special NHC Statement ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:53 AM Re: Special NHC Statement berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:02 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Ricreig   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:23 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:29 AM Re: Special NHC Statement trinibaje   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:09 AM Re: Special NHC Statement tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:09 AM Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:04 AM Re: Special NHC Statement tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM Re: Special NHC Statement bn765   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM Re: Special NHC Statement nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:51 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:54 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:57 AM Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:02 AM Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:53 AM Re: Special NHC Statement Thunder   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:57 AM Re: Special NHC Statement MikeC   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:11 AM polar effect ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:16 AM Re: polar effect Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:27 AM Re: polar effect Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:54 AM Re: polar effect FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:28 AM Re: polar effect VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:23 AM Re: polar effect trinibaje   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:23 AM Re: Special NHC Statement MikeC   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:50 AM Re: Special NHC Statement ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:39 AM maybe this is the one everyone has always feared Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:41 AM well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:22 AM Re: well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to mbfly   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:27 AM looks like a buzz-saw...ANDREW TYPE OF STORM Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:25 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:42 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:07 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:00 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:36 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:30 AM Dennis the menace Rich B   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:36 AM Re: Dennis the menace OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:03 AM Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:55 AM Traffic Flow-FL/ AL state line danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:12 AM Re: Cuba Map limks rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:38 AM NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion~edited danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:51 PM Re: Dennis and Cuba Ron Basso   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:55 PM Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:53 PM Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:02 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba HanKFranK   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:20 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:25 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ohioaninmiss   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:46 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba SkeetoBite   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:34 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:46 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:50 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:13 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:20 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:22 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:26 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:21 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:27 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:42 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:04 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:24 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:26 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:28 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:30 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:36 AM NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 AM Re: NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:55 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:09 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:14 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:26 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:30 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:59 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:02 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:45 AM 00z runs so far Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:00 AM Re: 00z runs so far Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:08 AM Re: 00z runs so far FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:01 AM Re: 00z runs so far danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:10 AM Re: 00z runs so far Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 AM Re: 00z runs so far Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:07 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:52 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:12 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:16 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba SkeetoBite   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:21 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:45 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:52 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:53 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:58 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:56 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:55 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:59 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:56 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba SeeSaw99   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:07 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Lisa NC   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:43 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Frank P   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:47 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:46 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba danielw   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:14 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:30 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba abyrd   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:22 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:20 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba gavsie   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:55 PM Re: Dennis and Cuba Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:57 PM Canadian Global shows MS hit? Frank P   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:29 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba cjzydeco   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:09 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba gavsie   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba G. J.   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:21 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba G. J.   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:10 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Breeezy   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:09 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:28 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba abyrd   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:32 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba ohioaninmiss   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 AM Re: Dennis and Cuba Maggie'sMom   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:50 PM

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