That the models/predictions have gotten better over the last few decades only makes it worse - because it is still very much an inexact science.
The cone of error is there for a damn good reason and everyone needs to respect that. If a hurricane watch or warning goes up, do the safe thing and finish your preparations. I-95 was a parking lot last year heading north during Frances and Jeanne. My parents decided to evacuate to the west coast of Florida for Frances, and they were a little better off - until the storms hit over there too.
Level-headedness is a trait everyone could use more of right now. So please, everyone - try and avoid making rash statements, wishcasting, and/or fearcasting.
The track is in the hands of the professionals now and there are many folks on this board whose insight is more valuable than gold. Let's give them the stage and continue our normal discussions.
I'm sure there will be plenty of people registering to ask questions any of us are qualified to answer ("where's the best place on the beach to watch an approaching hurricane?" - answer: "none")
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Generated May 19, 2024, 5:26:01 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center