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HanKFranK User Reged: Mon Posts: 1841 Loc: Graniteville, SC Re: The Future Of Irene       Sat Aug 13 2005 02:01 AM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   yep.. irene has just about quit moving. having its outflow shield squashed and the surface sheared may decouple the mlc and start the system drifting west as a... well, weakling. i don't expect it to come over to north carolina regardless, but hey, the details of this one have consistently thrown me. get to start fresh with the 96L disturbance. all of that early modeling bringing it nw is probably right, because there's one hell of a deep trough dug in behind irene and the ridge blocking irene. there will be some southwesterly shear with it, too.. once the system gets a little further to the north. i'd expect 96L to slowly deepen, and slowly move nw for the next few days... the ridge will fill back and send it hurtling west by the middle of next week. not unlikely to be jose, but not likely to do much for a few days. waves coming off africa are more robust but packed close together.... out of phase perhaps. this should keep them jumbled up and slow to develop if one has such intentions. favorable mjo is coming on, but it's not progressing cleanly or quickly. soi keeps dipping negative and while that persists the backing and confused upper pattern in the atlantic should be slow to give way. it may not go strongly positive.. if it does look for the strong zonal ridge to become established in the atlantic again. i've got a theory that action is much more intense and dangerous on the tail end of an mjo wave... the soi response favors a strong subtropical ridge in the atlantic at that point.. and the favorable span has been active long enough to typically have perked up several waves. this one is just coming on, so by that measure things aren't really going just yet.. but say around august 20th through the end of the month.. well, we'll see. random thing to watch... low is diving sw with the digging trough in the central atlantic. whatever happens to peel away from the trough and get under the ridge.. if anything, might be of interest. some models still showing falling pressures in the west carib/gulf by late week. not a definite but if anything happens to get over there... HF 0601z13august Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Irene Moving Northwest, TD 10 Forms MikeC Sat Aug 13 2005 02:01 AM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea pedro   Sat Aug 13 2005 09:49 AM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea AndyG   Sat Aug 13 2005 10:18 AM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:36 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:41 PM quick reminder HanKFranK   Fri Aug 12 2005 09:35 PM 11:00 is out...Irene Still a TS LI Phil   Fri Aug 12 2005 10:53 PM The Future Of Irene Ed Dunham   Fri Aug 12 2005 11:32 PM Re: The Future Of Irene Random Chaos   Fri Aug 12 2005 11:38 PM Re: The Future Of Irene Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:10 AM Re: The Future Of Irene Steve H1   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:34 AM Re: The Future Of Irene HanKFranK   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:01 AM Re: The Future Of Irene Cat Adjuster   Sat Aug 13 2005 10:23 AM Re: The Future Of Irene Old Sailor   Sat Aug 13 2005 11:01 AM Re: The Future Of Irene NONAME   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:23 PM Invest 96L Comments Ed Dunham   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:35 PM Re: The Future Of Irene ralphfl   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:33 PM Re: The Future Of Irene Kevin   Sat Aug 13 2005 01:37 PM Re: The Future Of Irene scottsvb   Sat Aug 13 2005 01:48 PM Re: The Future Of Irene mikeG   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:04 PM Good night, Irene, good night Irene... margie_visiting   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:25 PM Re: Good night, Irene, good night Irene... Myles   Sat Aug 13 2005 03:55 PM Could we have a trend here? ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 13 2005 03:32 PM Re: Could we have a trend here? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 13 2005 04:33 PM Re: Could we have a trend here? Kevin   Sat Aug 13 2005 05:50 PM Re: Could we have a trend here? emackl   Sat Aug 13 2005 06:06 PM Re: Could we have a trend here? meto   Sat Aug 13 2005 06:27 PM Re: Could we have a trend here? NONAME   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:23 PM TD 10 and Irene danielw   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:33 PM Re: TD 10 and Irene *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* NONAME   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:40 PM Re: TD 10 and Irene Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:41 PM Re: Could we have a trend here? Clark   Sat Aug 13 2005 06:27 PM Re: Could we have a trend here? SkeetoBite   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:32 PM Re: The Future Of Irene mikeG   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:12 PM Re: The Future Of Irene mikeG   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:19 AM Early Saturday thoughts on Irene LI Phil   Sat Aug 13 2005 07:21 AM Re: Early Saturday thoughts on Irene craigm   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:53 AM Re: quick reminder damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 10:51 PM Hank and Irene danielw   Fri Aug 12 2005 10:50 PM Irene stalled? Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 09:24 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Clark   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:56 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Myles   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:19 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:16 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Rabbit   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:28 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:39 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:43 PM Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:37 PM Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:48 PM Re: Recon crpeavley   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:14 PM Re: Recon john03   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:19 PM Re: Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:22 PM Re: Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:26 PM Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:18 PM Re: Recon Rabbit   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:51 PM Re: Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:04 PM Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:09 PM Recon Cocoa Beach   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:12 PM Re: Recon damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:21 PM Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:26 PM Re: Recon damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:32 PM Re: Recon Gainesville, FL   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:37 PM Re: Recon OcalaKT   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:40 PM Re: Recon Reaper   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:53 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:35 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:41 PM Re: Recon ShanaTX   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:46 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:03 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:04 PM Re: Recon Ed in Va   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:12 PM Re: Recon rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:25 PM Re: Recon Big Kahuna   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:00 PM Re: Recon superfly   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:45 PM Re: Recon Ed in Va   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:41 PM Re: Recon Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:47 PM Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:50 PM Re: Recon Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:55 PM Re: Recon ralphfl   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:25 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:28 PM Re: Recon margie_visiting   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:28 PM Re: Recon margie_visiting   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:33 PM Re: Recon Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:40 PM Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:46 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:42 PM Re: Recon DavidP   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:47 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:53 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:54 PM Re: Recon Ryan   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:58 PM Re: Recon Clark   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:49 PM Irene & to-be-TD 10 Clark   Fri Aug 12 2005 07:54 PM Re: Irene & to-be-TD 10 Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:06 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:55 PM Re: Recon margie_visiting   Fri Aug 12 2005 07:15 PM 96L NONAME   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:52 PM Re: 96L mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 05:06 PM Re: Eye MapMaster   Fri Aug 12 2005 05:15 PM Re: Eye yecatsjg   Fri Aug 12 2005 05:38 PM Re: Eye MapMasterNLI   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:35 PM Re: Eye mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:36 PM Re: Eye Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:32 PM Re: Eye Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:46 PM Re: Recon damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:28 PM Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:18 PM Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:23 PM Re: Recon Bloodstar   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:55 PM Re: Recon Ed in Va   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:55 PM Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:55 PM Re: Recon NewWatcher   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:56 PM Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:54 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:21 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea craigm   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:50 PM Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea MikeC   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:53 PM

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