as of 5:00 am, tropical storm irene was centered at 30.1 north and 68.6 west, or about 535 miles southeast of cape hatteras...moving to the northwest at 10 mph...maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts...minimum central pressure reported by recon was 997 millibars (29.44 inches of mercury).
as ed mentioned late last night, it is still too early to throw out the "all clear" sign for the EC, but...this is looking to be the most likely scenario by far...irene did NOT strengthen overnight, making her a tropical storm still (albeit a 70 mph ts) this morning...she's over warm water and facing relaxed shear, but does have some drier air to contend with as she continues to the nw...
she's currently tracking around the fringe of the bermuda high, which should push her nw, then n, then ne and out to sea...BUT...if the ridge continues to strengthen, this could push irene further west and possibly send her quite close to the coast...AND...the upper level ridge off the east coast could also build, causing her to slow down, perhaps making that loop-de-loop or a stall that was being picked up by some of the models...if she stalls or gets "trapped", then the east coast is not out of the woods by any means...i'm not buying into these possibilities, but they do exist nonetheless
i'm still close to sending out that "all clear" but not yet...if nothing else, this should wake up the east coast to the fact that we haven't even hit the peak of the season yet (and we're already up to "I") and the CV season will begin in earnest shortly...
today marks the one year anniversary of Charley, which was damage-wise, the second worst hurricane in US history...cantore and others will be in punta gorda where the town will unveil a plaque memorializing the victims and the devastation
elsewhere in the basin, the tropics are showing increased life and i wouldn't be surprised to see what is now 96L becoming jose within the next day or two...
all interests on the east coast need to keep an eye on irene for at least a little longer...
BUCKLE UP!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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