The NHC 5-day track is largely with the model guidance...the model guidance, that is, that actually captures the storm. The BAM-series models and the LBAR (and other models) are simplistic, older models and not given much weight in making a forecast.
It's also worth noting that the NHC 5-day track errors generally are lower than all of the model guidance except for the consensus (multi-model average) models and the FSU Superensemble. I'd put more trust in the NHC over the long haul than I would almost any model.
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 22167
Mobile Home
- Login
- Normal Flhurricane Site This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
Generated May 14, 2024, 6:24:47 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center