I wouldn't write off the LLC of old TD 10 yet. Some recent convection near the LLC and good circulation evident on the VIS SAT. TD10 looks to be drifting slowly W-NW. The 12Z UKMET develops the depression into a storm and has it moving just to the north of the Windward Islands and then W-NW thru the central Bahamas in 6 days. A long way off and only one model run, but the global pattern of a rebuilding Atlantic Ridge after Irene is predicted by many models - thus if TD10 develops, its unlikely to go north out into the open Atlantic. And what's that feature spinning CC around 30N-55W diving S-SW. It looks like a mid latitude low pressure system - the circulation doesn't show up on the water vapor.
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Generated May 15, 2024, 10:58:28 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center