It seems to me that NHC's TAFB people and those at the TWO desk aren't talking too well today
Wave near Puerto Rico: TAFB TWD 8am: THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TWO 11am: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.
Yucatan wave: TAFB TWD 8am: WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE no mention of development TWO 11am: SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
So which is it? I realize TWO is 3 hours more recent, but generally there aren't major changes between the two sources. Each one talks about the same waves doing nearly the same things usually. This time it seems very divergent in their forcasts!
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Generated May 13, 2024, 7:45:36 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center