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For interests in FL and the Gulf perhaps a few disconcerting model runs.

12z Euro: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2005082112!!/


00z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation (Edit: Just saw the 12z run and it looks more realistic http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...hour=Animation)

06 GFS also thought provoking (though the 12z run has moved away from that idea)

There is still some thunderstorm activity there, as shown by the bit of a flareup last few frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

For now I'll file that under, "things that make me go hmmm." Pending future runs, perhaps the end of this week/this time next week we will see some interesting developments. As has been noted approximately 800,000 times, the water temps are hot , so it is possible. The explosion in the CMC seems a bit too bullish, but we'll see.

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Interesting Big Red. All the globals are at least developing weak low pressure around S FL by friday with some offering development in the eastern GOM. Convection today has again flared up with the wave. The CMC was ominous but this explaination from HPC this pm:

DAY 3 WAVE OVER SRN FL/WRN CUBA REFLECTS YDAYS COORDINATION WITH
TPC REGARDING WHAT REMAINS OF FORMER T.D. 10. WHETHER FROM THIS
FEATURE AND/OR ANOTHER UPSTREAM... OP/ENS GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF SRN FL BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CANADIAN IS THE EXCEPTION WITH A MUCH
STRONGER LOW....BUT CANADIAN HAS IN THE PAST HAD AN AFFINITY FOR
OVER AMPLIFICATION OF GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEMS. FOR NOW
WILL NOT DEPICT A WELL DEFINED FEATURE...BUT WILL KEEP A SPOT LOW
OVER SRN FLORIDA SINCE ALL MODELS CONCUR THIS MORNING

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RJB

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