Rich, I'm not sure if this low is even going to make it off of land. It's over the long, narrow west-east part of southern Mexico and heading west right now. Steering flow is out of the east with very little to no component that would send it a bit towards the north as the upper-level high pressure area has shifted towards the west over the past couple of days. It's broad and could always reform over water, but given what is there now, I'm not convinced it'll make it up into our basin. If it does get over water, all bets are probably off, though I think any significant development is going to be limited by proximity to land and a short time period that it'll remain over water before going back inland.
There is some model support for it moving west and ultimately west-southwest into the Eastern Pacific basin and spinning up there just off of the Mexican coast, however. I'm not sure I'd put much stock in the models for something like this anyway, given the proximity to land and the reorganization cycles these things can go through, but it's a trend that bears watching. The NOGAPS had been the one calling for this to maybe do something in the S. Bay of Campeche, but now has largely backed off of that idea.
As for the rest of the tropics....the 8:05p TWD upgraded the E. Atlantic feature to a special feature, suggesting possible development within 36hr. It needs that time to consolidate, but should do so through time. Slow development is possible from there, with the most likely end-game scenario taking it northward about 60W. We'll know more in a few days, though, once and if it develops. Elsewhere, there's not much to follow...still some model interest in the remnants of TD 10 (whichever piece of it they may be), whether in the Gulf Stream off of SC like Alex last year or in the Gulf. Depends on how strong the coming frontal boundary & trough is as to what the more likely scenario is...stronger boundary means the remnants are more likely to be pulled north. In any case, I don't expect (re)development out of this one until the middle of next week at the earliest...just doesn't have the longevity or the organization.
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