FLHurricane.com: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Local Met. in S. FL. thinks it could loop back more eastward, see below, anyone agree?

Katrina struggling to go anywhere except into least resistance. We must be careful as in cases where when we finally get a wide opening between the high over the western Central Gulf retrograding and a smaller over the Southwest Atlantic. In most cases as I looked at the old Eastern Airlines Aeronautics text book (graphical charts of movement of tropical cyclones movement of tropical cyclones section) the tendency for these storms is to move with the contour ribbon usually looking at the closely packed countours north of 35 North, in essence what this means is to look at what is going on over the 35 north latitude (My input to that also is there a trough? motion of air masses on water vapor loop??).

We can get a better picture using the water vapor loop motion of where the dry areas are going too which hurricanes will try to avoid. For now I see plenty of dry air pushing down toward Katrina and this is keeping Katrina on a quasistationary position in fact somewhat farther southwest and south of GFS runs from yesterday. I would keep a close watch on her she can still move eventually to the right if a trough or even the southwesterlies push down south of 35 north latititude.

There have been several major hurricanes that just sat there for days in the Gulf until a clear opening was present this means void of any dry boundaries or high pressure areas blocking it. If she moves farther southwest to South I would worry about a loop and change of direction when that happens the picture is completely different then and meanwhile the synpotic weather patterns are progessing along over the North American continent...remember we are getting already into the transistion to the fall upper air pattern over the U.S. Any major trough or impulse digging southeastward into the United States could help to push southwesterlies further south and east and finally break throug and capture Katrina...along with any high to the east over the Atlantic that would modify the track a little (orientation of western most contour or winds from any subtropical high from the Southwest Atlantic.

Right now you have a upper ridge/high line axis Northeast and Southwest that seperates the easterlies and the westerlies..in the Central Gulf area.

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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4

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