Ok...quick run down...
Maria - it's done effecting anyone except the fish and the boats. It's weakening, and should continue to weaken as it moves north.
Nate - I expect it to reach weak hurricane based on the models. It's trapped below a ridge of high pressure and isn't moving much. A lot depends on where and how it punches through this ridge. The models keep it well out at sea, but I wouldn't place all my faith in that. So long as that ridge is there we could see it do some erratic movement. GFS has the ridge weakening in a couple of days, and that's when the system punches through. The big question in my mind is: "why is it punching through there?" I don't see much on the pressure models to make it take the model track beyond "that's what most hurricanes tend to do." Still bears watching, but will probably do little more than stir some fish.
94L - The big question. It's looking good on sat presentation this morning. Plenty of moist air around it. It's in a relatively low shear environment. The biggest obsticles to growth appear to be interaction with land. The models are highly divergent on both track and intensity. Some throw it northeast, some north, some northwest, and one likes keeping it almost stationary before dissipating it. And for intensity, GFDL dissipates it and Ships brings it to hurricane in 72 hours. Looking at the ridge north of it (the same one that has Nate trapped), I'd dismiss any northward movement for now. Given that the system has shown almost no inclination to move, even though the models have been calling for steady (though divergent) movement over the last several days, I'd say this thing is just going to sit where it is and continue to grow for the next several days until the ridge to the north and northwest weakens. Once that happens, I'd expect it to head northwest toward FL, possibly more westerly. Hard to know the track this far ahead, and impossible to guess on the intensity. There is little to hamper continued growth so long as it stays at sea. One thing working for us if it does cross into the GoM: SSTs still haven't recovered from Katrina. They are just slightly below seasonal averages now...instead of WAY above like they were a week ago.
92L - This one we need to watch. It has maintained its characteristics for the past several weaks despite heavy shear environments. It's still a weak wave, but it could easily spawn something once it gets through a weak SAL environment (remnants of a SAL wave from over a week ago) over the next couple of days. This SAL hasn't been speeding west, and in fact 92L has been catching it slowly. The SAL also has been weakening steadily, and give it another couple days and it might no longer be an impedence to anything. On the far side of this SAL we have a moist environment with high SSTs heading toward the Yucatan. Beyond the Yucatan we have high SSTs throughout the western GoM. I'd expect to see 92L begin to do something in 2-3 days as it nears the Yucatan. What...well...it's too early to tell.
Mid-atlantic wave(s) - they are beneath some strong SAL, which will limit development. I'd watch them as they head west though...if they break free of the SAL (or if the SAL moves away from it), we could see it start to do something. Shear is high in that part of the Atlantic though...so it might be a while before anything develops. Something to watch toward the end of the week...maybe early next week. (These two waves are at 45W and 32W - the one at 32W looks far healthier...the one at 45W doesn't even show on sat!)
Africa - another wave/low looks to be moving off of Africa today. It's quite far south -- far enough from the SAL that it might not be impeeded by the dry air. It still has the strong shear environment to deal with, though the shear seems to be receeding west somewhat. If the shear doesn't tear it appart, this could be the next CV system. Both NOGAPS and GFS dont' seem to pick up on it very well, turning it quickly north after it is fully over water. This doesn't make sense to me...but thats what the models show. My opinion is that it will track west. Waves don't tend to move north. It already looks impressive...and it isn't fully off Africa yet!
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 06 2005 08:08 AM)
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