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Random Chaos Weather Analyst Reged: Sat Posts: 1024 Loc: Maryland Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast       Tue Sep 06 2005 09:47 PM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   Nate's up to 3.5 Dvorak rating from SSD. That's barely under hurricane strength. I'd expect it to stay a TS tonight and strengthen to a Hurricane by morning. GFDL is bringing him to a Category 3 within 3-4 days. That might be excessive...but then look at what Maria did. At least he looks like he'll stay out to sea. As for 94L, it's Dvorak is also up, from 2.0 to 2.5. It's getting close to TS if it isn't already. We're not going to get another recon tonight so I doubt they will upgrade her to Ophelia yet. I don't trust any model that dissapates this system...so the GFDL track is out in my mind. It did the same thing with Katrina at times...dissipated her...and look what she did. I'm more inclined to go with the global models...CMC...GFS...NOGAPS...which all take 16 north along the coast and slowly strengthen her, bringing her into land somewhere between mid-Florida and the Outer Banks. Unfortunately the global models aren't good for intensity, and I've noticed that SHIPS has been running weak on intensity this year. My "guess" is that we'll have a Cat 1 hurricane out of Ophelia...but nothing more. Let's see how the models change now that we have a TD rather than a blob. ======== Weatherwatcher: GFDL is taking 16 SW then W, dissipating her before she reaches the coast of FL. Take a look at the "Late" products here for GFDL track: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ -- I don't know what's up with PSU's and FSU's TCGenisis sites...they seem to be broken a lot of the time this season. --RC Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 06 2005 09:49 PM) Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast MikeC Tue Sep 06 2005 09:47 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast zacros   Wed Sep 07 2005 06:31 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast crpeavley   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:01 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Jekyhe904   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:00 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Rasvar   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:19 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast weatherwatcher2   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:41 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Rasvar   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:53 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:55 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Colleen A.   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:40 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:29 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:47 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast weatherwatcher2   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:58 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:19 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:49 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:38 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Catawba   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:14 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Clark   Wed Sep 07 2005 12:41 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 07 2005 09:05 AM Quick hit thoughts Clark   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:44 AM Re: Quick hit thoughts Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:18 AM Re: Quick hit thoughts Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:20 AM Re: Quick hit thoughts Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:34 AM Re: Quick hit thoughts Random Chaos   Wed Sep 07 2005 06:31 AM Re: Quick hit thoughts Hugh   Wed Sep 07 2005 06:46 AM Re: Quick hit thoughts emackl   Wed Sep 07 2005 07:46 AM Re: Quick hit thoughts tpratch   Wed Sep 07 2005 07:52 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast scottsvb   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:26 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:43 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:29 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:33 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast dolfinatic   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:17 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:50 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Colleen A.   Wed Sep 07 2005 12:05 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:07 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Hugh   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:31 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:56 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast disneyfanfl   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:28 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast MikeC   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:26 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast tpratch   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:31 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Hootowl   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:40 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:43 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast tpratch   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:49 AM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:00 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Rich B   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:13 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast native   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:47 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast The Force 2005   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:42 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast trinibaje   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:52 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:22 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast The Force 2005   Wed Sep 07 2005 09:22 AM ophelia.... HanKFranK   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:43 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast NewWatcher   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:29 PM Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Hootowl   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:44 PM Re: TD16 Ron Basso   Tue Sep 06 2005 02:56 PM Re: TD16 native   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:14 PM Re: TD16 Ron Basso   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:50 PM Gulf Of Mexico Myles   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:00 PM Re: Gulf Of Mexico Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:29 PM Re: Gulf Of Mexico Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:34 PM Re: Gulf Of Mexico Ed in Va   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:38 PM Re: Gulf Of Mexico Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:54 PM Re: Gulf Of Mexico Rabbit   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:48 PM Todays activity Rich B   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:05 PM Re: Todays activity DebbiePSL   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:23 PM Re: Todays activity Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:35 PM Re: Todays activity DebbiePSL   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:55 PM Re: Todays activity Ryan   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:05 PM Re: Todays activity Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:10 PM Re: Todays activity Hugh   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:22 PM Re: Gulf Of Mexico Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:48 PM Re: Gulf Of Mexico doug   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:24 PM uh oh... Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:34 PM Re: uh oh... native   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:52 PM Re: Gulf Of Mexico Tazmanian93   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:21 PM Re: TD16 Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:48 PM Latest vortex message Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:00 PM WX in Charleston Anton Ross   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:09 PM Maria Robert   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:31 PM Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm Robert   Mon Sep 05 2005 08:49 PM Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:22 PM Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm danielw   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:56 PM Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm Ricreig   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:51 AM Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:56 AM setting the pace HanKFranK   Mon Sep 05 2005 05:38 PM Re: setting the pace 317288   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:05 PM Re: setting the pace Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:42 PM upgrade? HanKFranK   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:01 PM Re: upgrade? Ed Dunham   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:05 PM Re: setting the pace Hootowl   Mon Sep 05 2005 06:55 PM busy busy busy Ryan   Mon Sep 05 2005 07:53 PM Re: busy busy busy tpratch   Mon Sep 05 2005 08:44 PM Re: busy busy busy Ryan   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:31 PM Re: busy busy busy LadyStorm   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:41 AM Re: busy busy busy Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:43 AM Re: busy busy busy GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:09 AM Indications Ed Dunham   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:36 AM here goes HanKFranK   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:50 AM The loop twizted sizter   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:02 AM Re: The loop native   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:49 AM Re: The loop DJINFLA   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:30 AM Re: The loop FlaMommy   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:56 AM Re: The loop Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:36 AM Re: The loop native   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:54 AM Re: The loop NewWatcher   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:57 AM Re: The loop Juanjo   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:03 AM Re: The loop GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:46 AM Re: The loop Steve H1   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:56 AM Re: The loop Hootowl   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:09 PM Re: The loop MikeC   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:28 AM Re: The loop Wingman51   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:01 AM Re: The loop Ed in Va   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:53 AM Re: busy busy busy Colleen A.   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:13 AM Re: busy busy busy Steve H1   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:22 AM TD 16 FORMS! recmod   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:23 AM Re: TD 16 FORMS! emackl   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:27 AM Re: TD 16 FORMS! Ron Basso   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:54 AM Re: TD 16 FORMS! Steve H1   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:32 AM Re: TD 16 FORMS! emackl   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:35 AM Re: busy busy busy Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:27 AM Wave Off FL Coast cjzydeco   Mon Sep 05 2005 05:34 PM

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