FLHurricane.com: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast

7:30AM Update
Ophelia is still stationary off the east Central Florida Coastline, about 80 miles east of New Smyrna Beach and is expected, but not certain to, shove east and a bit north. Due to it being a little too close for comfort Volusia county schools have closed for the day.

The area is still under a Tropical Storm Warning, and a Hurricane Watch may be issued for parts of the coast later today. Take a look at the track models below for a good idea where it may go. Or in this case, we just don't know. The NHC's track is a best guess at this point, and they aren't even all that thrilled with it. So all of us along the Florida and Georgia coastlines will have to watch for any move this thing takes.

It has strengthened some overnight into a 60-65 MPH storm and may do so today even more, perhaps becoming a category 1 hurricane today. Overnight it flared up some, but this morning it has died back down a bit and has gotten more ragged looking, so this may keep it from gaining strength, at least in the short term.

Ophelia is still off our coastline. Most of the rainshower activity has been to the south, east, and north of the center of the storm. Still most likely it will move north and east, slowly, very slowly, and then eventually loop back around toward the west.

Some bands will make their way onshore today. With me personally having property right on the coast along New Smyrna Beach, you can be sure I'm watching this one very closely.

10:30PM Update
Tropical Storm Warnings now exist from Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, as Ophelia is about 90 miles east of New Smyrna Beach, still not moving at all since about 2PM this afternoon. It will continue to meaner for a bit, perhaps drifting north and looping around. It will need to be watched for a few more days, unfortunately.

More to come later.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed east of Florida, Tropical Storm Warnings have been dropped south of Sebastian Inlet and now extend northward to Flagler Beach. The storm is moving slowly north and northwestward, and later on may loop just offshore of Florida.

This will keep Central Florida in the outer bands for a day or two. Beyond this, the highest chance is for it to move further away from the US, increasing to hurricane strength. There is some divergence in the models, some bring it back westward toward North Florida or Georgia, and most now move it out to sea.

Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps lookhere.

Those in the area will want to keep watch on this one for any westward movement.

More to come soon.

Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread

Katrina Discussions are in the Disaster Forum

Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite

Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne

Video/Audio/Webcams
Daytona Beach Webcam (Streaming)
Daytona Beach Piercam
WESH TV 2 Daytona Beach Tower Cam

Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Floridadisaster.org
Brevard County
Flagler County
Indian River County
Volusia County
Other florida counties

Maria

Animated model plots of Maria

Nate

Animated model plots of Nate

Ophelia

Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
Floater WV Satellite of Ophelia
Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia

Post Extras