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I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00z and 12z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note Charley was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.

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For a few days now and a few pages back i posted that my thinking was the GA FL border,Now what i use to base it on is the same thing i used when i said that Kat would hit the LA miss area when it left the Fl coast which is a blend of the GDFL runs and blend them with old runs.

When Katrina went off the florida coast the gdfl had the right track a day before then changed as it went along.

The other day the gdfl had it going to the GA Fl border and my thinking is it has it now moving faster then what it is and will be doing.

So just like with Katrina ill go with what worked last storm and for 2 days now been saying this will hit the GA FL border as a cat 1-2 storm and error range up to the GA SC border and as low as Daytona beach.

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 09 2005 02:00 PM)

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