Looks like the mets at NWS in Ruskin (West Central Florida) agree with you per their 1:30 PM discussion. IMO, they're the best NWS site in Florida in their presentation and documentation. Link's on the CFHC main page under Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 7:00:10 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center