I stayed up till after the 5 a.m. NHC update and got back up from a nap about 45 minutes ago. Since then I've been studying the loops, highs & lows, etc.
In the wee hours of the morning I had convinced myself that O was moving on out - it looked like she was pressed between two highs and being "spit" northeast, at about 10 miles an hour.
Now it looks like O has stalled like they predicted - it hasn't moved much at all since 3 a.m. It's just waiting till the highs open and give it a path out.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 1:44:49 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center