Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Ophelia's Movement
Sun Sep 11 2005 05:56 PM
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If you have been using NASA MSFC closeup imagery to determine movement, a couple of the more recent images were slightly misaligned and may have given a momentary impression of westward movement. In fact, for the last couple of hours, Ophelia has been drifting just south of due east.
Also, a reminder to use the Forecast Lounge Forum for predictions that are based on little more than a hunch. All of the models generally perform poorly on a stationary system - and some of them perform poorly regardless, which is why models are used only as a guide when developing a forecast (along with many other inputs). If you "live by the model - die by the model" you are not forecasting anything - you are simply reading. Model outputs and sometimes even official forecasts generate a lot of conjecture - that often never verifies. If Hurricane Ophelia continues to drift eastward, the likelyhood of a U.S. landfall diminishes. This is not to say that she shouldn't be watched - for she should - however, speculation for landfall in Florida or even South Carolina based on current trends is remote at best.
Actually Ophelia is helping to create her own block for westward movement by pulling southward the western extension of the ridge over the mid Atlantic states and northeast states. Can South Carolina still get tropical storm force winds? Yes, but landfall there is not very likely.
ED
(Note: From just about the last good visible satellite image at 2240Z, the center coordinates were 31.4N 75.7W)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 11 2005 06:58 PM)
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