Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: late sep/early oct
Mon Sep 12 2005 09:52 AM
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HF points out an expected change in the MJO that would change the Atlantic from an inactive to an active period - with the change occuring from the end of Sept into October - and I agree. October could end up being more active than normal. The CV season is probably over - most of the waves exiting the west coast of Africa have been weak and there haven't been that many of them lately. The weaker waves are moving west northwestward at a more southerly latitude so formation is not likely until they get near the southern Caribbean Islands or into the Caribbean Sea itself. This pattern, if it evolves (and it probably will since there are signs of this already) would move developing systems either into the Gulf of Mexico or, depending on the strength of the Atlantic ridge and the strength of cold fronts moving toward the Southeast over the U.S., northward up the east coast. I believe that his point was that storms could be prone to entering the Gulf - where they eventually go from there depends on conditions at that time.
Cheers,
ED
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