News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks Previous   Index   Next   Flat

Clark Meteorologist Reged: Wed Posts: 1710 Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas       Tue Sep 13 2005 01:15 PM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   Considering the cooled waters (both due to storm-induced and physically-induced upwelling), poor inner-core organization of the storm, and proximity to land -- among other factors -- I think a call of a 90kt storm at landfall is, quite frankly, unrealistic. It may organize a bit more than forecast, but that's by 5kt and not 30kt. We've seen storms with impressive satellite signatures actually be quite a bit weaker than they are in reality this season, including this one throughout its lifecycle -- something Bastardi hasn't picked up on all season long despite recon & surface obs to the contrary -- and given what the current state of the storm is, it's going to take a lot for the surface representation of the storm to match any improved satellite appearance. It doesn't have the time, the environment, or the state of organization to do so. That is in no way to say that people in SC/NC shouldn't be prepared for a hurricane -- we've been harping on that possibility for days now -- but to think that something intensifying to major hurricane status will affect the region is just beyond reason right now. -------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots (or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!) Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Ed Dunham Tue Sep 13 2005 01:15 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:07 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Convergence   Tue Sep 13 2005 10:35 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Bloodstar   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:51 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:24 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Cycloneye11   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:43 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas zacros   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:05 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:19 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:29 AM New Invest Wingman51   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:54 AM Re: New Invest NewWatcher   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:09 AM Re: New Invest Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:14 AM Re: New Invest Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 10:52 AM Re: New Invest TheSkyGuy-in-OZ   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:46 AM Re: New Invest Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:03 PM Re: New Invest TheSkyGuy-in-OZ   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:12 PM Re: New Invest sailor   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:35 PM Re: New Invest Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:20 PM Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:11 PM Re: Ophelia Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:31 PM Re: Ophelia HCW   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:43 PM Re: Ophelia Rabbit   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:49 PM Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:55 PM Re: Ophelia ralphfl   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:58 PM Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:13 PM Re: Ophelia The Force 2005   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:42 PM Re: Ophelia La Nimo   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:28 PM Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:09 PM Re: Ophelia Big Kahuna   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:19 PM Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:30 PM Re: Ophelia The Force 2005   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:41 PM Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:48 PM Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:02 PM Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:12 PM Re: Ophelia Clark   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:15 PM Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:35 PM Re: Ophelia CoalCracker   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:39 PM Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:23 PM Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:28 PM Re: Ophelia Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:32 AM Re: Ophelia syfr   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:31 PM Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:18 PM Re: Ophelia ralphfl   Wed Sep 14 2005 04:27 PM Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:52 PM Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:55 PM Re: Ophelia Ryan   Wed Sep 14 2005 10:50 PM Re: Ophelia Daytonaman   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:50 PM Re: Ophelia bigpapi   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:09 PM a little more ophelia HanKFranK   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:29 PM Re: Ophelia Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:16 PM Re: Ophelia Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:42 PM Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:57 PM Re: Ophelia DebbiePSL   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:24 PM Re: Ophelia The Force 2005   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:57 PM Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:01 PM Re: New Invest Todd   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:30 AM Re: New Invest TheSkyGuy-in-OZ   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:22 AM Re: 95L INVEST NONAME   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:19 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:48 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas zacros   Tue Sep 13 2005 06:38 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:52 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas zacros   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:08 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:19 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:35 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:09 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Clark   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:15 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:14 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:21 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas rexsc   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:40 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 04:17 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 05:37 PM Invest 95L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:45 PM Re: Invest 95L amonty   Tue Sep 13 2005 05:58 PM Re: Invest 95L Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:27 PM Re: Invest 95L prideman   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:45 PM Re: Invest 95L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:34 PM ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle HanKFranK   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:37 PM Re: ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle Ryan   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:46 PM Re: ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle Tazmanian93   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:50 PM Re: Invest 95L bn765   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:57 PM Re: Invest 95L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:23 PM Re: Invest 95L CoalCracker   Tue Sep 13 2005 04:12 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Chris Bryant   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:33 PM Atlantic activity Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:29 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas WisconsinWill   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:28 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas B.C.Francis   Tue Sep 13 2005 10:36 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 11:40 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:01 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas HanKFranK   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:08 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Old Sailor   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:58 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Old Sailor   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:47 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:16 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Ed Dunham   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:04 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:12 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:58 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Clark   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:34 AM ophelia creeping along HanKFranK   Tue Sep 13 2005 02:08 AM Re: ophelia creeping along WisconsinWill   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:56 AM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas CarolinaGurl   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:56 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas *DELETED* noooo   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:31 PM Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas prideman   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:41 PM

Extra information 0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum. Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw  Forum Permissions       You cannot start new topics       You cannot reply to topics       HTML is disabled       UBBCode is enabled Rating: Thread views: 31372 Rate this thread Choose rating 1 star 2 star 3 star 4 star 5 star Jump to *News Talkback* -----   2024 News Talkbacks*General Discussion* -----   2024 Forecast Lounge   2024 Storm Forum   The Tropics Today   Other Storm Basins   Hurricane History   Hurricane Ask/Tell   Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions   Disaster Forum*General Discussion* -----   Comedy Shop   Everything and Nothing   Other Weather Events*Weather Bloggers* -----   Blogger Discussion   Resident Meteorologist Discussions   Weather Blog Bios/Links*Archives 2020s* -----   2022 News Talkbacks   2022 Storm Forum   2022 Forecast Lounge   2023 News Talkbacks   2023 Forecast Lounge   2023 Storm Forum   2021 News Talkbacks   2020 News Talkbacks*Archives 2010s* -----   2015 News Talkbacks   2015 Storm Forum   2015 Forecast Lounge   2017 Forecast Lounge   2013 Storm Forum   2013 Forecast Lounge   2012 Storm Forum   2012 Forecast Lounge   2011 News Talkbacks   2016 News Talkbacks   2017 News Talkbacks   2018 News Talkbacks   2019 News Talkbacks   2013 News Talkbacks   2014 News Talkbacks   2010 News Talkbacks   2010 Storm Forum   2010 Forecast Lounge*Archives 2002-2009* -----   2009 Storm Forum   2009 Forecast Lounge   2008 News Talkbacks   2008 Storm Forum   2008 Forecast Lounge   2007 News Talkbacks   2007 Storm Forum   2006 Storm Forum   2006 Forecast Lounge   2005 News Talkbacks   2005 Storm Forum   2004 News Talkbacks   2003 Storm Forum   2002 News Articles and Talkback   2002 Storm Forum

---

Mobile Home - Login - Normal Flhurricane Site
This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
Generated May 18, 2024, 4:04:19 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center