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Cycloneye11 Weather Hobbyist Reged: Mon Posts: 70 Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast       Thu Sep 15 2005 07:22 AM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE LOCAL REGION IS A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ. EXAMINATION OF THE PAST 7-10 DAYS OF DATA SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THERE ARE TWO VORT CENTERS WITHIN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ONE A PIECE OF AN AEW AT 47.5W THAT WAS SEVERELY STRETCHED THEN SPLIT AS IT EXITED AFRICA...AND REMAINS LINKED TO THE TROF AT 56 WEST...AND THEN NEXT A LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45-46. CIMSS LLVL VORT FIELDS AND RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES SUGGEST AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER GRADUAL ORGANIZATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TWO LLVL VORTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MERGE OR CONGEAL BEFORE THIS OCCURS. NHC COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN AN EVENTUAL NW AND WNW MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS...WITH PAST TWO GFDL RUNS LIFTING STRONGLY N OR NNW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVIATE FROM A WLY MOTION. A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE SW AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS N THRU NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD PROVIDE THE ENVIRONMENT TO MAKE THAT NW AND THEN NLY TURN IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE FARTHER WEST THIS SYSTEM MOVES...THE LATER THE TURN. THAT BEING SAID...ALL INTERESTS IN THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. The above is from the NWS discussion in San Juan related to 95L.I am a little worried about this system affecting the islands because of it's low latitud it is located.Let's see what will occur in the next few days. Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast MikeC Thu Sep 15 2005 07:22 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast crpeavley   Fri Sep 16 2005 02:34 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast jlauderdal   Fri Sep 16 2005 02:43 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Lee-Delray   Fri Sep 16 2005 03:18 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Ed G   Fri Sep 16 2005 03:22 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast doug   Fri Sep 16 2005 04:17 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Steve H1   Fri Sep 16 2005 07:06 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast HCW   Fri Sep 16 2005 08:20 PM O 95 96 HanKFranK   Fri Sep 16 2005 08:51 PM Re: O 95 96 Beaumont, TX   Fri Sep 16 2005 10:54 PM should have a TD at 5am Bloodstar   Sat Sep 17 2005 03:15 AM Re: should have a TD at 5am Multi-Decadal Signal   Sat Sep 17 2005 06:53 AM Re: should have a TD at 5am OrlandoDan   Sat Sep 17 2005 07:28 AM We now have our 17th Depression ChessieStorm   Sat Sep 17 2005 08:40 AM Re: We now have our 17th Depression emackl   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:07 AM Re: We now have our 17th Depression Hugh   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:41 AM Re: We now have our 17th Depression emackl   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:53 AM Re: We now have our 17th Depression Hugh   Sat Sep 17 2005 10:00 AM Re: We now have our 17th Depression Random Chaos   Sat Sep 17 2005 10:38 AM Re: We now have our 17th Depression Lee-Delray   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:12 AM Re: We now have our 17th Depression emackl   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:15 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast patrickbyers   Thu Sep 15 2005 10:47 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast patrickbyers   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:10 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Fri Sep 16 2005 09:01 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 08:52 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Cycloneye11   Thu Sep 15 2005 07:22 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 15 2005 07:43 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 09:11 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast HanKFranK   Thu Sep 15 2005 09:32 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Clark   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:23 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast The Force 2005   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:41 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast danielw   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:04 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Fri Sep 16 2005 09:06 AM ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way HanKFranK   Fri Sep 16 2005 10:11 AM Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way The Force 2005   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:51 PM Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way Ed in Va   Fri Sep 16 2005 01:01 PM Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way Hootowl   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:32 PM Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way Ron Basso   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:56 PM Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way Black Pearl   Fri Sep 16 2005 02:14 PM Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way emackl   Fri Sep 16 2005 01:43 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Random Chaos   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:27 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Clark   Fri Sep 16 2005 01:05 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Random Chaos   Fri Sep 16 2005 08:33 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast javlin   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:14 AM Season only half way for sure WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:44 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:00 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast NewWatcher   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:09 AM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast rexsc   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:11 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:54 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast scottsvb   Thu Sep 15 2005 02:08 PM Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Ed in Va   Thu Sep 15 2005 04:42 PM Next week twizted sizter   Thu Sep 15 2005 10:22 AM

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