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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way
      Fri Sep 16 2005 12:56 PM

Hello all...Thought I'd add my thoughts on the two new disturbances now that the Big O has finally starting to move out (did anyone else suffer storm fatigue for this system?) Anyway, on to 95L - Looks better today, still some SW shear to the north but looks like that may be decreasing toward the west. Maybe a trop depression by tomorrow or Sunday. The track, I agree with HF, I don't see rapid intensification like I think the globals were picking up for the last 2 days, so I think a weaker system being guided by low-level flow conditions looks about right. In this case, I agree with the dynamic models (I can't say that very often) and climatology - that this system will move W-NW into the Carribean Sea somewhere south of Hispanola or PR in 3-5 days. Where it goes from there - I won't even speculate on this far out. The second blob of convection NE of PR looks to be enhanced by an ULL immediately to its west. If the ULL moves away or fills in the next two days, I think we'll have a depression. If it develops rapidly, say by 75W, then I think it gets pulled NW toward the weakness in the Atlantic Ridge left over from the Big O. However, all global models show the Ridge quickly rebuilding over the SE US by Monday or Tuesday, so it'll eventually get steered to the west. How quickly it strengthens will have big implications on its future track - more north and then west the faster it forms and perhaps a track west across S or Cent FL, more along a southern tragectory between the Keys and Cuba if it stays weaker. All in all, this storm could be a significant drought buster for west-central FL if it develops quickly.


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_95.gif

--------------------
RJB

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 16 2005 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast crpeavley   Fri Sep 16 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast jlauderdal   Fri Sep 16 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Lee-Delray   Fri Sep 16 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Ed G   Fri Sep 16 2005 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast doug   Fri Sep 16 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Steve H1   Fri Sep 16 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast HCW   Fri Sep 16 2005 08:20 PM
. * * O 95 96 HanKFranK   Fri Sep 16 2005 08:51 PM
. * * Re: O 95 96 Beaumont, TX   Fri Sep 16 2005 10:54 PM
. * * should have a TD at 5am Bloodstar   Sat Sep 17 2005 03:15 AM
. * * Re: should have a TD at 5am Multi-Decadal Signal   Sat Sep 17 2005 06:53 AM
. * * Re: should have a TD at 5am OrlandoDan   Sat Sep 17 2005 07:28 AM
. * * We now have our 17th Depression ChessieStorm   Sat Sep 17 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: We now have our 17th Depression emackl   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: We now have our 17th Depression Hugh   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re: We now have our 17th Depression emackl   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: We now have our 17th Depression Hugh   Sat Sep 17 2005 10:00 AM
. * * Re: We now have our 17th Depression Random Chaos   Sat Sep 17 2005 10:38 AM
. * * Re: We now have our 17th Depression Lee-Delray   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: We now have our 17th Depression emackl   Sat Sep 17 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast patrickbyers   Thu Sep 15 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast patrickbyers   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Fri Sep 16 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Cycloneye11   Thu Sep 15 2005 07:22 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 15 2005 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast HanKFranK   Thu Sep 15 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Clark   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast The Force 2005   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Fri Sep 16 2005 09:06 AM
. * * ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way HanKFranK   Fri Sep 16 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way The Force 2005   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way Ed in Va   Fri Sep 16 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way Hootowl   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way Ron Basso   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:56 PM
. * * Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way Black Pearl   Fri Sep 16 2005 02:14 PM
. * * Re: ophelia almost ready to go, replacements on the way emackl   Fri Sep 16 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Random Chaos   Fri Sep 16 2005 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Clark   Fri Sep 16 2005 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Random Chaos   Fri Sep 16 2005 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast javlin   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Season only half way for sure WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast NewWatcher   Thu Sep 15 2005 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast rexsc   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast scottsvb   Thu Sep 15 2005 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast Ed in Va   Thu Sep 15 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Next week twizted sizter   Thu Sep 15 2005 10:22 AM

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