Quote: Reposting from the last thread so my post actually gets read....
I'm only saying this because I learned it with Katrina and not everyone may remember it.... the motion that the NHC gives is a 6-hour average. So, in the past 6 hours, the storm moved 0.1N, 0.9W, which is essentially due west. This type of binning of data averages out small wobbles and focuses more on true, long-term motion.
Right.. and what it also does is makes it take several hours for an actual turn to be reflected in the reported heading. I'm not saying that this isn't a wobble.. Just that it's not all that crazy to think that it may be an actual turn. Maybe it's because I saw Charley coming directly at me while the NHC was still saying it was headed for Tampa. I wouldn't start celebrating if I were in Texas, but I would be a little more concerned if I were on the east side of the cone right about now.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 4:02:51 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center