FLHurricane.com: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

11PM
Rita's moving West Northwest, it's weakened a bit, with intensity likely to fluctuate up or down somewhat overnight. Pressure is back up to 917 mb. However it looks like the eyewall replacement cycle that was going on, so in the short term it may restrengthen a bit first.

The track forecast hasn't changed at all since earlier this afternoon.

After landfall the storm is expected to stall out over land in northeast Texas, causing great rains.

Original Update
Hurricane Rita is now moving generally west northwest, it has weaked a bit to a category 4 storm.

After encountering some dry air to the northwest, Rita has recovered nicely and is actually intensifying a bit this evening.

Rita will probably hold 'steady-state' for a while on intensity. Motion is still generally west northwest and at times northwest.
Yet the forward speed is a lot slower.

Meterologist Ed Dunham thinks that the ridge to the north is not as strong as advertised. And it is likely that Rita and a short wave moving through the Great Lakes have eroded the ridge and a more northwesterly motion is probably going to set in fairly soon.

The forecast track has shifted a bit to the right, closer to the Louisiana and Texas border. Close to Port Arthur and Beaumont.

We may see yet another adjustment by Friday morning. Landfall Saturday morning near the state line - with the variance from High Island. Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana.

Intensity at landfall could be a high end Cat III (a low end Cat IV is still possible since the quicker adjustment to the east will avoid most of the modest shear zone to the west).

This eastward adjustment means heavier rainfall for the New Orleans area, and could still generate flooding for Galveston from Galveston Bay to the north of the island.

Warnings are up from Port O'Connor in Texas to Morgan City in Louisiana.

The most storm surge prone area of the storm, just east of the eye. Will likely impact the extreme northern Texas coast and Western Louisana the most.

Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

Check out the blogs below, Clark Evans has more, including information of potential impacts along the coastline from New Orleans to Corpus Christi and inland to northern Texas.

Event-Related Links

Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Links to Texas County Emergency Management

Radars
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Houston/Galveston, TX Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi, TX Long Range Radar
Brownsville, TX Long Range Radar
Lake Charles, LA Long Range Radar
New Orelans, LA Long Range Radar

Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Video/Audio

Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston

Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio

Newspapers
Houston Chronicle

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as Rita approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Galveston, Texas. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports n the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX not affiliated with the real NHC

Reply and let us know of other links.

Rita

Animated model plots of Rita

Google Map plot of Rita

Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Dvorak Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop

Philippe

Animated model plots of Philippe

Edited by SkeetoBite (Fri Sep 23 2005 06:11 AM)

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