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well i'm in the middle. it looks like a lot of the guidance they're going off of is the dynamic stuff that only works well for weaklings, 'cause the globals are still barely showing the system and naturally stuff weak systems into mexico. there haven't been any significant systems in that part of the gulf for better than a month, so oceanic heat content won't be a problem. as for the dry air mass... that is slowly being converted by its environment into something less hurricane-hostile. if y'all remember, katrina wasn't exactly dealing with a moist airmass either just after it crossed florida, and it spun up anyway.

HF 1645z01october

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Interesting thoughts...I agree with many of them..
I am also interested in what your thoughts are on soil moisture content over the Yucatan. It has been noted in years past that tropical disturbances in their formulative stages have demonstrated better survival during trek near that land mass, particularly when the year has been wetter than normal. Obviously, we know this is because rich soil moisture certainly does influence rate of decay rates for convection near the cores of these systems as they cross that land mass.

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