HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Re: development-impaired
Sun Oct 02 2005 12:26 AM
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they aren't going to upgrade 20 without strong evidence. there's radar coverage from cancun, the buoy, and whatever other recon they can get out there. the nhc will call it conservatively; for that reason i don't expect it to be upgraded before landfall... unless there's a 34kt wind or something suggestive of it, or maybe just a really sharpened satellite appearance.
out in the east atlantic 19 has a better look to it than earlier, but i agree with their keeping it a depression. the low level turning you can see in the exposed part of the cloud field isn't all that impressive. long term prog isn't a great one for this system as shear and cooler ssts should start killing it in a few days if the shear doesn't kill it outright or keep it in check in the short term. it may pull a lee and briefly make storm status, but it'll only amount to a statistic.
anyhow, 20 will be entering the BoC and all those comments about not being sure where it goes in a few days are well-founded. a lot of globals want to shove it into mexico by default, but the steering ridge that is building to the north right now may be gone by the time the storm is nearing mexico. some of the guidance stalls it and pushes it back to the east or northeast later in the coming week. there is also the issue of what else may be forming over there.. some of the globals suggest another system will try to develop in its wake by the middle of the week. on top of all that there's still a shot at something trying to form off the east coast. it wouldn't make sense for all of this to happen, so some variation of the mentioned events should take place. whether 20 goes into mexico or not, there's a general consensus on a system or wannabe system being centered somewhere between the yucatan channel and the outer banks by later next week.
still interested in the hybrid system near 25/35. models still tracking it far to the west. that's another statistic if anything comes of it.
expect weirdness as october is usually the month for such things.
HF 0426z02october
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