Bloodstar
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Stan 19 and the models
Sun Oct 02 2005 04:35 AM
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Well. NHC has Tropical Storm Stan on their main page as well, so if there was any lingering doubt... heh
19 is still firing up some fairly serious convection only to have it blasted away. so, it may, or may not, get to tropical storm strength.
Now, on to the question of the day.... The models are giving some crazy signals on the 00Zulu runs:
the CMC is bringing up a pretty strong storm in about 72 hours just off of tampa and driving it up the east coast.
GFDL is looping Stan around and bringing it up the *East* side of the Yucatan after abou 120 hours
GFDL is also brining 19 up to about 30N then looping it back down to the south at the end of the period. (while strengthening it to a hurricane...
GFS weakens Stan and 19, but then creates 2 spurious lows trekking across the atlantic.
meanwhile the MM5FSU stalls Stan in the BOC and strengthens it somewhat, and then has a weak feature near the islands in 5 days.
NOGAPS kills 19 off, and then there's a broad area of low pressure in the Gulf, possibly stalling Stan out, possibly something else entirely.
and finally UKM creates a low pressure near the Yucatan in about 4 days, After running Stan ashore.
So what in the world does it mean? Well, it looks like the models think something is going to happen in the Eastern Gulf in the next few days, as far as what the trigger will be, I have no clue right now, but most of the models see something there. Meanwhile 19 has a small window to become Tammy. But I think the NHC will hold off upgrading it unless there is very strong evidence to indicate it's a tropical Storm (after all, we now have only 3 names left, and the least thing we need are jokes about Beta Decay and Hurricane Delta changing, And I'm so not sticking around for Omega 
So, I have no idea what's going to happen, but it seems like we have at least one more item that's going to be in the next few days.... that is if the models are picking up on something real and not just a feedback issue or some other spurious data...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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