FLHurricane.com: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity

I'm sure you all have heard the discussion about storm cycles versus global warming trying to explain this year's activity. (if this is considered off topic, please delete it and accept my apology.) Here are some numbers I found: In 1887 we had 19 storms, in 1933 we had 21, and in 1990 we had 14. Normally one could expect to see between 5 and 11 storms per year. One year there was only one storm! However, starting in 1995, here are the number of storms by year: 19,13,8,14,12,15,15,12,16,15, and 20 so far this year. I just counted the number of storms, not if they hit land.

I didn't try to log the average strength by year, but it sure seemed to my untrained eye that we are getting more stronger storms. While we are waiting for all these blobs out there to either develop (or hopefully die), want to discuss your theories? I believe better equipment may account for some of the increase. On the other hand, didn't this site start about the same time the storms increased? Better communication? It certainly proves that this site is a Godsend for us near the coast.

What is causing this increase? Are underwater volcanoes warming the seas?(husband's theory) Is it a cycle? Solar flares? Hubby says there is a definate increase in water vapor in the atmosphere because of ocean warming. Why?

Lu

the record gets less reliable as you go back so we're probably missing some parts of active seasons that would supersede this one (currently 18/9/5). the whole climate change thing is a lot more complicated. human actions are very likely contributing to greenhouse warming... C02 in the atmosphere primarily. all it really does is more effectively trap longwave radiation the earth emits. the climate is REALLY complicated, though... if you want a primer in what may be going on, read a book by Richard Alley (a veteran Penn State climate guy) called The Two Mile Time Machine. the last few chapters especially... which are about what was apparent in cores drilled out of the Greenland ice sheet. he could have written a bunch of technical crap like i usually end up doing, but instead it's written on a not-so-tough level with lots of explanation. i guess because a lot of what you see reported is short sited BS and he wanted a quasi-layman book to get the word out without the media spin. we live in a stable climate time, but ice ages and dramatic climate shifts within just a few years have happened many times in the past. it really puts the little changes we see today in perspective. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Oct 02 2005 04:58 PM)

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