"TPC/NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS IDEA... BRINGING A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TRACK OF THIS FEATURE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE ECMWF IS NOT USUALLY THE BEST MODEL FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS... BUT THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS THAT THE ERN TROF WILL EXERT LESS INFLUENCE THAN FCST BY GFS RUNS... KEEPING THE TROPICAL FEATURE FARTHER SWWD. THEREFORE THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS COMPROMISE LEANS MORE IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION."
That's just great. I'm sick of the storms. When they say a Well defined system, do they mean well defined as it goes to GOM or well defined after it gets there? That makes a big difference for FL.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 1:02:15 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center