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Ok, now, I just woke up to a nice looking swirl coming off the northern Coast of the panhandle. Some one is on this I hope in that we have a lot of people in the area who have just about tuned out the rest of the season. I have heard my co-workers actually saying that they consider the tropical season to be over at the end of September and do not pay any attention. The other concern is the government is now focused on the subway system in New York City. How much chance of turning into a disaster does this little swirl in GOM have? Will this storm have a chance to build before the cold front behind it sweeps it toward the peninsula of Florida. Will the cold front stall and feed the swirl rather than rush it along? Will the system east of Florida serve to stall the swirl in the Gulf or will the reverse happen? Stay tuned for the newest soap opera on the site. Tammy meets Vince.

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The "swrl" that appears to be south of Pensacola this morning - and not moving very much at all, to my eyes - won't have a snowball's chance to develop because of the approaching cold front. At least that's what the experts say, and at some point they're bound to be right about this system. Looking at the early morning satellite loop, the convection tried to make a comeback but the attempt appears to be fizzling even as I type this. I'd put the chance of development at somewhere less than the 1%.

As for Tammy meeting Vince... that's not going to happen. If the system were to develop into a tropical storm, it would have to retain the name Tammy, because from the time Tammy was considered to be disappated from the HPC at 5pm yesterday until now, the system hasn't disappated and reformed, it's held its own. For the NHC to rename this would be sillier than if they renamed Stan to something else in the EPAC.

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)

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