GGEM (essentially the CMC) has a very interesting take on the Western Atlantic Basin near the end of next week...
http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all.htm
It appears as though it is taking the U/A low currently near 23/59 and boring it to the surface over the next few days, while slowly moving it generally W.
The picture if complicated in the Atlantic Ocean for this weekend, early next week and beyond. There is a tendency unanimously across all guidance to build the W Atlantic heights actually further W.
In fact, it makes it unclear why most NWS offices are choosing to go with the more progressive models solutions regarding the frontal positioning by this Monday. It seems certainly plausible to this meteorologist that this boundary may in fact wash out altogether, and/or just be ineffectual at changing the synopsis beneath the middle troposphere. I suspect in the very least we will be left with a persistent S inflow of subtropical if not down right tropical air mass that will be oriented essentially S to N as we head into next week. (It may just be that the models are also overdoing the strenghth of antecedent anticyclone slated to migrate over the NW Atlantic at that time. I say so because it appears a bit questionable how intense the attending mid-level confluence will be with this feature.. A weaker feature would mean less suppression. Meanwhile, the GGEM solutions...
Also, the NOGAPs currently depicts a significant weakness in the vicinity of the SE Bahamas (thereabouts) for its days 5 and beyond, and this could be an attempt to latch onto similar thinking; especially considering that the overall synoptic tone of the NOGAPs is not too different from the GGEM.
Anyway, this will all be very interesting to watch because the U/A low in question is currently intensifying its convection closer to the center as we go on in time.. And, there are certain aspects about the GGEM solution that are quite believable because it elucidates both elements of peristence but also compliments the teleconnectors for this part of the hemisphere... I would say, of the extended range depictions we have seen thus far this late summer and autumn, this is the most confident - *however, confidence in any tropical phenomenon is by current science fleeting at best.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Oct 07 2005 10:18 AM)
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