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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
vince/22L/94L
      Sun Oct 09 2005 10:22 PM

take on vince is that it peaked earlier today and will be downgraded to a t.s. at 11pm. the eye/convective ring has broken down in recent sat images. if it starts looking less tropical the nhc will likely declassify it quickly, as it's way out in left field already. shear is impacting the system but not moving it yet, so it'll probably weaken a lot shortly. maybe come non-convective as it gets over cooler water. i'd expect it to get called extratropical tomorrow one way or another. ultimate track probably close to nw spain, but i don't think the remnant will landfall. should be quite a rain event, though.
the old subtropical depression threw a single convective burst for quite a time today. it may be distancing itself from the strong easterly shear jet around the upper low to its SE, so it may redevelop if it can throw some convection. nhc will probably ignore it unless it makes a very convincing effort at developing convection. whether it redevelops or not, the low pressure should be off the mid atlantic coast as that large high builds in.. may stall and then jerk west or southwest thereafter.
94L is showing good convective action again but has troughed out at the surface. good diffluent/convergent atmosphere ahead, so it may add its contribution to the disturbed weather in the caribbean or serve as a focal mechanism for low pressure to develop.
other side of the upper low is an area of disturbed weather in the bahamas. there's a narrow anticyclone and modest low level convergence, so it may be a troublemaker if it persists.
as far as what old sailor said about a hurricane being off the east coast and potentially threatening the northeast coast this week... there are various models depicting a deep storm that looks tropical in origin moving up around there, sure enough. not much agreement on exactly how it forms, but the synoptic pattern would potentially support a storm getting up there. definitely stay tuned.
been watching the long-range pattern we should see later this month.. seeing some things that have me very interested, but want to see some more consistency before i get carried away with them... if you want a clue why i'm interested, check the 18z gfs runs around 8-10 days out.
HF 0222z10october

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Sun Oct 09 2005 10:22 PM
. * * The long, strange ride continues Clark   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:19 PM
. * * Something new? Clark   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:27 PM
. * * weirded out yet? HanKFranK   Tue Oct 11 2005 12:47 AM
. * * Re: weirded out yet? doug   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Speaking Greek tpratch   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:56 AM
. * * Re: weirded out yet? Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:48 AM
. * * Its official - Europes first on record Rich B   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Tue Oct 11 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Tue Oct 11 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record meranto   Wed Oct 12 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Oct 12 2005 08:09 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Cindi   Wed Oct 12 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record FlaMommy   Wed Oct 12 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:30 PM
. * * a few obs HanKFranK   Wed Oct 12 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: a few obs typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 12 2005 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 12 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Margie   Wed Oct 12 2005 11:15 AM
. * * quieting down HanKFranK   Wed Oct 12 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Question for you-all Beach   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: quieting down Myles   Wed Oct 12 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: quieting down Clark   Wed Oct 12 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: quieting down doug   Wed Oct 12 2005 12:07 PM
. * * And they say... Beach   Tue Oct 11 2005 07:27 AM
. * * Re: And they say... GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 11 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: And they say... Adam   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: And they say... GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: And they say... HanKFranK   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: And they say... Margie   Tue Oct 11 2005 09:39 PM
. * * Something Local Beach   Wed Oct 12 2005 07:37 AM
. * * Re: And they say... typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 11 2005 07:08 PM
. * * Re:MODELS HURRICANELONNY   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:47 PM
. * * winter website tashina   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: And they say... ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 11 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record SMOKE   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Domino   Mon Oct 10 2005 08:07 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 10 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic bulletdodger   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Season danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 10 2005 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Season josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Season josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:46 PM
. * * vince/22L/94L HanKFranK   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:22 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L Steve H1   Mon Oct 10 2005 08:05 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L dave foster   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:04 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L OrlandoDan   Mon Oct 10 2005 06:33 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L dave foster   Mon Oct 10 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L Steve H1   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L emackl   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:05 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? Bloodstar   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? emackl   Mon Oct 10 2005 07:21 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? Hugh   Mon Oct 10 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Thunderbird12   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Old Sailor   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic La Nimo   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Old Sailor   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Sun Oct 09 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! NONAME   Sun Oct 09 2005 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! Rich B   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:51 PM
. * * oddball HanKFranK   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:53 AM

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