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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: And they say...
      Tue Oct 11 2005 06:54 PM

it isn't a tropical system, but it's definitely tropical-origin: the low that remains of subtropical depression 22 is now a couple hundred miles east of delaware... drifting nne and blowing some convection, but forecast by several globals to be blocked by the strong high pressure descending over the canadian maritimes and pushes northwest and west towards new jersey. while it may not be a tropical cyclone, this system is going to bring a great deal of tropical moisture to the region from new jersey to maine that is already drenched from the shear-off from tammy and the yucatan invest that rode up the coast at the end of last week. joe b had this system arriving up there from a good ways back. i don't agree with him that it will reintensify (say, into a gale center), but do think that he's right about the northeast being due for some severe flooding.
the stuff from the two to seven o clock orbit around the upper low west of bermuda still has no coherent maxima around which a low pressure could form. globals have been predicting one to originate near hispaniola for days, but that still hasn't happened. now that the upper low is lifting out, clark is right in forecasting the upper air conditions to improve. there's been a persistent anomalous westerly flow out of the pacific into the caribbean for days now... probably an artefact of the generally high upper heights over the northern latitudes and low heights in the tropics. interesting that as winter comes on and the longwave pattern deepens, the tendency for all that blocking up there could contribute to some severe arctic outbreaks.. since some of you are already talking winter. as far as the current situation goes, based on how anomalous that fetch off the pacific has been, i'd say that were in for a system or two regardless as the upper low lifts out and things try to right themselves.
we've got a pretty flat weather pattern, with a zonal jet at higher latitudes and above normal heights near the northern u.s./southern canada.. with cutoff lows and below normal heights in the subtropics... resulting in a pretty stagnant, jammed up mess in the tropics. i'm wondering what things will look like when we finally get ouf of it.
HF 2254z11october

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 11 2005 06:54 PM
. * * The long, strange ride continues Clark   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:19 PM
. * * Something new? Clark   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:27 PM
. * * weirded out yet? HanKFranK   Tue Oct 11 2005 12:47 AM
. * * Re: weirded out yet? doug   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Speaking Greek tpratch   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:56 AM
. * * Re: weirded out yet? Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:48 AM
. * * Its official - Europes first on record Rich B   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Tue Oct 11 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Tue Oct 11 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record meranto   Wed Oct 12 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Oct 12 2005 08:09 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Cindi   Wed Oct 12 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record FlaMommy   Wed Oct 12 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:30 PM
. * * a few obs HanKFranK   Wed Oct 12 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: a few obs typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 12 2005 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 12 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Margie   Wed Oct 12 2005 11:15 AM
. * * quieting down HanKFranK   Wed Oct 12 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Question for you-all Beach   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: quieting down Myles   Wed Oct 12 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: quieting down Clark   Wed Oct 12 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: quieting down doug   Wed Oct 12 2005 12:07 PM
. * * And they say... Beach   Tue Oct 11 2005 07:27 AM
. * * Re: And they say... GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 11 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: And they say... Adam   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: And they say... GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: And they say... HanKFranK   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: And they say... Margie   Tue Oct 11 2005 09:39 PM
. * * Something Local Beach   Wed Oct 12 2005 07:37 AM
. * * Re: And they say... typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 11 2005 07:08 PM
. * * Re:MODELS HURRICANELONNY   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:47 PM
. * * winter website tashina   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: And they say... ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 11 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record SMOKE   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Domino   Mon Oct 10 2005 08:07 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 10 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic bulletdodger   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Season danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 10 2005 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Season josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Season josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:46 PM
. * * vince/22L/94L HanKFranK   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:22 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L Steve H1   Mon Oct 10 2005 08:05 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L dave foster   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:04 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L OrlandoDan   Mon Oct 10 2005 06:33 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L dave foster   Mon Oct 10 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L Steve H1   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L emackl   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:05 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? Bloodstar   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? emackl   Mon Oct 10 2005 07:21 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? Hugh   Mon Oct 10 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Thunderbird12   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Old Sailor   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic La Nimo   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Old Sailor   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Sun Oct 09 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! NONAME   Sun Oct 09 2005 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! Rich B   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:51 PM
. * * oddball HanKFranK   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:53 AM

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