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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
a few obs
      Wed Oct 12 2005 03:59 PM

well tip if you've got any good ideas about those teleconnection indicies i'd be glad to hear 'em, because my term project in one class this semester will involve me tying the phase of those suckers to tropical cyclogenesis... if it works, anyway. gonna have to learn principal component analysis in a crunch here, man.
anyhow speaking of SOI, it's been averaging positive since mid september or so, with the odd dip here or there.. but has gone strongly positive in the last few days. this sort of action will get the easterly flow in the tropical pacific really kicking and strengthen the upwelling off of south america. got a hunch next year will be a la nina year. in these sorts of transitional winters... i.e. from near neutral to cold ENSO, you can get some pretty serious cold-air outbreaks over the continent. a couple of quick analogs i can think up are the '84-'85 winter and '95-'96. there's already been an general trend towards blocking and higher heights in the northern latitudes so far this fall, so i'm reckoning that winter '05-'06 could have some embedded extremes early.. then probably transition to the warm/dry south and mild/moist north configuration that is particular to la nina, if it actually does come on.
anyhow, worth noting that a few of the 12z runs are becoming more interesting in that a nw caribbean system is starting to emergy early next week. around the time we're done dealing with whatever semi-tropical feature tries to pop out of the northern end of that upper trough near bermuda, the lower end might be brewing something up as the pattern relaxes and more ridging builds in over all that persistent low-level convergence.
in the short term the northern mid atlantic and southwestern new england are in big trouble as persistent tropical-origin rains keep funneling in off the atlantic. draw a 100 mile circle around new york city and anywhere in that zone is going to likely see widespread regional flooding.
HF 1959z12october

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 12 2005 03:59 PM
. * * The long, strange ride continues Clark   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:19 PM
. * * Something new? Clark   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:27 PM
. * * weirded out yet? HanKFranK   Tue Oct 11 2005 12:47 AM
. * * Re: weirded out yet? doug   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Speaking Greek tpratch   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:56 AM
. * * Re: weirded out yet? Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:48 AM
. * * Its official - Europes first on record Rich B   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Tue Oct 11 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Tue Oct 11 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record meranto   Wed Oct 12 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Oct 12 2005 08:09 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Cindi   Wed Oct 12 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record FlaMommy   Wed Oct 12 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:30 PM
. * * a few obs HanKFranK   Wed Oct 12 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: a few obs typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 12 2005 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 12 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Margie   Wed Oct 12 2005 11:15 AM
. * * quieting down HanKFranK   Wed Oct 12 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Question for you-all Beach   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: quieting down Myles   Wed Oct 12 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: quieting down Clark   Wed Oct 12 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: quieting down doug   Wed Oct 12 2005 12:07 PM
. * * And they say... Beach   Tue Oct 11 2005 07:27 AM
. * * Re: And they say... GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 11 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: And they say... Adam   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: And they say... GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: And they say... HanKFranK   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: And they say... Margie   Tue Oct 11 2005 09:39 PM
. * * Something Local Beach   Wed Oct 12 2005 07:37 AM
. * * Re: And they say... typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 11 2005 07:08 PM
. * * Re:MODELS HURRICANELONNY   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:47 PM
. * * winter website tashina   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: And they say... ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 11 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record SMOKE   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Domino   Mon Oct 10 2005 08:07 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 10 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic bulletdodger   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Season danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 10 2005 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Season josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Season josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:46 PM
. * * vince/22L/94L HanKFranK   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:22 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L Steve H1   Mon Oct 10 2005 08:05 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L dave foster   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:04 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L OrlandoDan   Mon Oct 10 2005 06:33 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L dave foster   Mon Oct 10 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L Steve H1   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L emackl   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:05 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? Bloodstar   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? emackl   Mon Oct 10 2005 07:21 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? Hugh   Mon Oct 10 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Thunderbird12   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Old Sailor   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic La Nimo   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Old Sailor   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Sun Oct 09 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! NONAME   Sun Oct 09 2005 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! Rich B   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:51 PM
. * * oddball HanKFranK   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:53 AM

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