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yeah the GFDL got there attention.... sounds like there are going with ships for time being....

"ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS."

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The issue here really is bureaucracy... They actually have guidelines surrounding what they are allowed to disseminate from to the public.

I can confirm this because a friend of mine is an on camera Meteorologist of certain local noteriety (for many years) here in easter New England, and he has elucidated this to me in the passed, that particularly during model runs over Nor'easters on the east coast sometimes NWS seems to almost be obtusely missing the boat. It's not that they are... It's really that they have rules that unless they are absolutely certain of elements requiring they do so, they are not supposed to over step...

It's no different for HPC - trust me. You probably already know this anyway... And, actually , it kind of makes good sense... Even though there is enough synoptic appeal to this thing to support a rapid and profound intensification scheme, the fact that only 1 model really depicts it is a smoking gun for needing more time...

Counter point, unfortunately, not likely.. It probably will be a smart event. As of 5pm we indeed have a broadly defined circulation center, inside of which lurks a 1004mb low and that is guidelines for upgrade. TD 24 has sprung to existence... (Amazing 24 named storm is almost a certainty and utterly incredible). Also, one thing I've noticed about system this year - actually, over the last decade for that matter - is that they invariably seem to stemwind up into a deeper more intense system than the officials initially estimate...

Now that TD-24 is defined, it will be interesting to see how the 0z model runs depict. I suspect you are going to see some intensity corroboration by the SHIPs model for starters; though likely shy of 150kts. May not be so in the global based models, however, because obvioulsy a 898mb core amid 150kt winds is just not something that fits inside the resolution of those models. However, I am virtually certain they will in the least have a better fix and a much deeper system out in time. We'll see.

In the meantime, the more I look at the synoptics for next week the more I am convinced that this system will likely not have a demise in the southern Gulf like the last... Which, unfortunately for our storm weary denizens of the Gulf States, the plausibility is on them. OUch.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Oct 15 2005 05:08 PM)

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