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Random Chaos Weather Analyst Reged: Sat Posts: 1024 Loc: Maryland Re: wilma on the way       Sat Oct 15 2005 09:09 PM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   New GFDL model out taking it to a Cat 3. Given the track record on the GFDL intensity forcasts for the last major storms this year, the running average of intensity is generally a fairly good average: 00Z GFDL predicted a weak Cat 5 06Z GFDL predicted a strong Cat 3 12Z GFDL predicted a strong Cat 5 18Z GFDL predicts a weak Cat 3 Based on the average of these model runs, I'd expect a Cat 4 out of this system right now. Even more amazing, none of the GFDL model runs are trying to disipate the system, so it might be that the Cat 5 runs aren't so far fetched. The runs now take her into western Cuba heading north. The Gulf coast and all of Florida needs to watch this system. I don't think the SSTs in the Gulf will support yet another Cat 5 system, but we said the same thing when Rita went through and look at what it did. If Wilma (yeah...it's almost certain she will be Wilma by morning...) heads toward the pan handle of FL, she will be heading over the worst oceanic conditions (in terms of SSTs). If she heads east, she'll hit land before having a chance to weaken much. If she heads west she will go up strait over the hot loop current. The track in the 5+ day period will be the determining factor for this storm's strength at landfall. --RC GFDL model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ Hurricane Heat Potential: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif SSTs: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20051015.gif (NRL SST/HHC Index for the above two links: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html) Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean MikeC Sat Oct 15 2005 09:09 PM Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean hurricane expert   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:52 PM confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps lunkerhunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:28 PM Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:33 PM Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps lunkerhunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:50 PM Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 11:22 PM Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps lunkerhunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 11:27 PM Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 11:35 PM Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 11:30 PM Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 16 2005 08:25 PM Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean dave foster   Sun Oct 16 2005 08:49 PM Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean tornado00   Sun Oct 16 2005 08:38 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Random Chaos   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:19 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Hugh   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:03 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Ed Dunham   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:16 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Ron Basso   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:12 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Margie   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:53 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:40 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:51 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica HanKFranK   Sat Oct 15 2005 11:02 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica bobbutts   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:07 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Spoken   Sat Oct 15 2005 04:18 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 12:06 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Goosus   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:25 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica scottsvb   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:17 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:28 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:25 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica scottsvb   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:32 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:38 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica scottsvb   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:48 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:08 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica scottsvb   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:26 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:31 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Ron Basso   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:12 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Hugh   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:19 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:17 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:25 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:39 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Hugh   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:42 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Rabbit   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:56 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 04:22 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Oct 15 2005 04:41 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 04:47 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 04:49 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 04:54 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 04:56 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 05:06 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica sara33   Sat Oct 15 2005 07:51 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 07:56 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 08:15 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica sara33   Sat Oct 15 2005 08:10 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 04:59 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Clark   Sat Oct 15 2005 05:26 PM thanks clark and others LoisCane   Sat Oct 15 2005 08:20 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 05:35 PM wilma on the way HanKFranK   Sat Oct 15 2005 06:35 PM Re: wilma on the way GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 15 2005 08:54 PM Re: wilma on the way Random Chaos   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:09 PM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:18 PM Re: wilma on the way Clark   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:28 AM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:37 AM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:40 AM Re: wilma on the way Clark   Sun Oct 16 2005 11:17 AM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:33 PM Re: wilma on the way scottsvb   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:39 PM Re: wilma on the way k___g   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:45 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:15 PM Re: wilma on the way MissBecky   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:50 PM Re: wilma on the way bobbutts   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:14 PM how far west she goes makes a big difference LoisCane   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:16 PM Re: wilma on the way Old Sailor   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:01 PM Re: wilma on the way GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:20 PM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:48 PM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:10 PM Re: wilma on the way Margie   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:40 PM Re: wilma on the way damejune2   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:49 PM Re: wilma on the way Hootowl   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:59 PM Re: wilma on the way damejune2   Sun Oct 16 2005 03:07 PM Re: wilma on the way Lysis   Sun Oct 16 2005 03:14 PM Re: wilma on the way damejune2   Sun Oct 16 2005 03:23 PM Re: wilma on the way StormHound   Sun Oct 16 2005 04:26 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher2   Sun Oct 16 2005 04:39 PM Re: wilma on the way Tazmanian93   Sun Oct 16 2005 08:51 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher2   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:07 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher2   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:10 PM Re: wilma on the way Lee-Delray   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:16 PM Re: wilma on the way CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:31 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher2   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:18 PM Re: wilma on the way Genesis   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:32 PM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:03 PM Re: wilma on the way dave foster   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:48 PM Bear Watch danielw   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:57 PM Re: Bear Watch Jamiewx   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:06 PM Re: Bear Watch Wxwatcher2   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:01 AM Re: Bear Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* The Force 2005   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:31 PM Re: Bear Watch Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 16 2005 11:51 PM Re: Bear Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* ralphfl   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:48 PM Re: Bear Watch Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:23 AM Re: Bear Watch typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 11:29 PM Re: Bear Watch abyrd   Sun Oct 16 2005 11:02 PM Re: Bear Watch ralphfl   Sun Oct 16 2005 11:15 PM Re: Bear Watch Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:57 AM Re: Bear Watch Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:06 AM Re: Bear Watch ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:39 AM Re: Bear Watch Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:19 AM Re: Bear Watch ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:27 AM Re: Bear Watch scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:50 AM Re: Bear Watch Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:21 AM Re: Bear Watch SMOKE   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:44 AM Re: Bear Watch Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:03 AM Re: Bear Watch SMOKE   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:23 AM Re: Bear Watch dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:40 AM Re: Bear Watch Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:45 AM Re: Bear Watch danielw   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:12 AM Re: Bear Watch scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:09 AM Re: Bear Watch Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:05 AM Re: Bear Watch Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:22 AM Models and TD24 danielw   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:46 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher2   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:39 PM Re: wilma on the way sara33   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:47 PM Re: wilma on the way *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* SirCane   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:54 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher2   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:55 PM Re: wilma on the way Lee-Delray   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:23 PM Re: wilma on the way charlottefl   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:29 PM Re: wilma on the way bobbutts   Sun Oct 16 2005 05:06 PM Re: wilma on the way crpeavley   Sun Oct 16 2005 06:52 PM Re: wilma on the way Lee-Delray   Sun Oct 16 2005 07:16 PM Re: wilma on the way GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 16 2005 07:46 PM Models Ed Dunham   Sun Oct 16 2005 08:58 PM Re: Models Kevin   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:10 PM Re: wilma on the way Lee-Delray   Sun Oct 16 2005 07:49 PM Re: wilma on the way Lee-Delray   Sun Oct 16 2005 07:33 PM Re: wilma on the way MichaelA   Sun Oct 16 2005 07:39 PM Re: wilma on the way Lee-Delray   Sun Oct 16 2005 07:45 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher2   Sun Oct 16 2005 05:55 PM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 04:42 PM Re: wilma on the way Jamiewx   Sun Oct 16 2005 03:20 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:39 PM Re: wilma on the way HanKFranK   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:47 PM Re: wilma on the way sara33   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:09 PM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:08 PM Re: wilma on the way LoisCane   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:14 PM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:14 PM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:50 PM Re: wilma on the way damejune2   Sun Oct 16 2005 03:02 PM Re: wilma on the way *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* The Force 2005   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:33 AM Re: wilma on the way Convergence   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:48 AM Re: wilma on the way *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* The Force 2005   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:52 AM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:17 AM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:31 AM Re: wilma on the way swimaway19   Sun Oct 16 2005 08:47 AM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 08:53 AM Re: wilma on the way scottsvb   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:01 AM Re: wilma on the way scottsvb   Sun Oct 16 2005 09:30 AM Re: wilma on the way Thunderbird12   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:38 AM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:43 AM Re: wilma on the way scottsvb   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:49 AM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:37 AM Re: wilma on the way GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 16 2005 02:44 AM Re: wilma on the way Sneakbridge   Sun Oct 16 2005 07:28 AM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:03 AM Re: wilma on the way HanKFranK   Sun Oct 16 2005 01:20 AM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 10:58 AM Re: wilma on the way Random Chaos   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:03 AM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:23 AM Re: wilma on the way Margie   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:09 AM Re: wilma on the way damejune2   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:32 PM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:20 PM Re: wilma on the way CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:22 PM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:25 PM Re: wilma on the way danielw   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:31 PM Re: wilma on the way sara33   Sat Oct 15 2005 11:38 PM Re: wilma on the way debwire   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:06 AM Re: wilma on the way Margie   Sun Oct 16 2005 12:05 AM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:53 PM Re: wilma on the way CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:50 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher2   Sat Oct 15 2005 11:14 PM Re: wilma on the way CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Oct 15 2005 11:29 PM Re: wilma on the way weatherwatcher2   Sat Oct 15 2005 11:34 PM Re: wilma on the way GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:50 PM Looking back on models from earlier this week Rasvar   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:57 PM Re: wilma on the way damejune2   Sat Oct 15 2005 07:54 PM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 08:48 PM Re: wilma on the way Old Sailor   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:03 PM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:11 PM Re: wilma on the way Beaumont, TX   Sat Oct 15 2005 08:13 PM Re: wilma on the way typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 08:23 PM Re: wilma on the way Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 06:43 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 04:53 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:55 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:24 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:18 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:17 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Steve H1   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:24 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Hugh   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:27 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:33 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:43 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:49 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:00 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:09 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 03:15 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:24 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:59 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Hugh   Sat Oct 15 2005 02:11 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica scottsvb   Sat Oct 15 2005 01:34 PM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Hugh   Sat Oct 15 2005 11:18 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Hugh   Sat Oct 15 2005 10:56 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica dave foster   Sat Oct 15 2005 11:03 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Hugh   Sat Oct 15 2005 11:15 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica Hugh   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:26 AM Re: Watching Near Jamaica dave foster   Sat Oct 15 2005 09:32 AM

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