The 12Z GFS has shifted back to the left (and this time I really mean left) through 84 hours, and appears to be just to the right of the official track, bringing the system into the Yucutan Channel just east of the peninsula. I have not seen anything past 84 hours from the 12Z run yet.
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Generated May 14, 2024, 8:32:34 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center