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This could be the kicker though. The 12Z NOGAPS is now aligned with the 12Z GFS (pretty darn close) and brings the hurricane across south central Florida at 132 hours. Let's see if the 12Z UKMET follows suit.

Didn't see your post scott; but you're right - until it comes NW nothing to worry about.......yet. But the left outlier has changed radically. Not a good sign.

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There something odd about this beast...
evidenced by the ir imagery in motion...there is an odd kind of anticylonic couplet sitting about 50naut miles NNW of the center fix... The cirrus debris in this close by area is rotating clockwise while all h*&! breaks loose just to the S...
It is almost as though a great force came down and sawed a hurricane in half!
Anyway, not sure what is causing this odd bifurcated development.

Also, it looks on vis imagery, especially in the last 2 or 3 frames, as though the 11am fix is off; it loos too far N by ~50naut miles.. Interesting what they say when the recon gets there.. I believe they said there would be one in the are early this afternoon?

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 17 2005 01:41 PM)

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