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Clark Meteorologist Reged: Wed Posts: 1710 Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics       Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   Gotta remember, damejune -- we haven't always had the GFS, NOGAPS, and other similar global models. Back not all that long ago, the global models (the ones we have now and older ones) performed horribly with tropical cyclones. Way back in the day, all we had to go off was the LFM and NGM models in terms of global/regional models and the simple track models such as the A98E, NHC90/91, LBAR, and BAM-series. These such models were state of the art not 15 years ago; nowadays, we've come along far enough with data, computing power, and with the physics/dynamics to have pretty good forecasts available to us out of the global models. Beta's performing pretty much as expected and I think once it finally does develop a consistent eye -- like Wilma -- we'll see it go through a period of rapid intensifcation. Nothing like Wilma, mind you, but intensification to cat. 2 seems quite possible. There is pretty low heat content over the area where Beta's at right now, largely due to the lay of the land there, that should help to keep intensity in check. The further north it gets, however, the higher the heat content. If it stays off-shore longer -- perhaps getting into that area between the Yucatan and Honduras like Mitch did -- the intensity forecast would need to be upped and the landfall forecast delayed substantially. Not calling for another Mitch scenario, but I wouldn't be surprised if the storm did get into that notch of water up there...if only just so. Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. MikeC Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Beach   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:42 AM Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. wulrich   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:15 PM Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:27 PM Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 06:10 PM Other areas? danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:06 PM Beta danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:16 PM Re: Beta Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:40 PM Re: Beta Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:08 PM Re: Beta Beaumont, TX   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:00 PM Nicaragua Population danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:40 PM ODT danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM Beta danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:06 PM Re: Beta danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:15 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics damejune2   Wed Oct 26 2005 04:44 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:16 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics rd261   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:27 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:33 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:15 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:50 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielw   Wed Oct 26 2005 08:03 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:24 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:27 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 08:24 PM Evening TWD Highlights danielw   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:15 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:11 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:50 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:41 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:50 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:56 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:11 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:32 AM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:08 AM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics doug   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:16 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:32 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Thu Oct 27 2005 01:52 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:36 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Littlebit   Thu Oct 27 2005 03:57 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics damejune2   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:46 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Old Sailor   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:56 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:03 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics La Nimo   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:30 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:58 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:06 AM Beta... danielw   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:03 AM Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:15 AM Re: Beta... danielw   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:37 AM Re: Beta... meranto   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:25 AM Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:36 AM Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:51 AM Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:55 AM Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:20 AM Re: Beta... Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:43 AM Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:41 AM Wilma wilma Robert   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:34 PM Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 PM Re: Wilma wilma scottsvb   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM Re: Wilma wilma trinibaje   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:23 PM Re: Wilma wilma twizted sizter   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:37 PM Re: Wilma wilma craigm   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:17 PM Re: Wilma wilma emackl   Fri Oct 28 2005 01:28 PM Re: Wilma wilma Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:48 PM Re: Wilma wilma twizted sizter   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:54 PM Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:59 PM Re: Wilma wilma Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:05 PM Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:11 PM take HanKFranK   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:35 PM Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 04:34 PM Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:16 PM Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:25 PM Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:34 PM Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:01 PM Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:47 PM Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:29 PM More model questions Random Chaos   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:02 PM Re: More model questions typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:42 PM Re: take Old Sailor   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:43 PM Re: take emackl   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:41 PM Vortex Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:58 PM Re: Wilma wilma scottsvb   Fri Oct 28 2005 01:54 PM Re: Wilma wilma JMII   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:46 PM Re: Wilma wilma typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:44 PM Re: Wilma wilma typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:50 PM Re: Beta... damejune2   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:08 PM Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM Re: Beta... Steve H1   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:32 AM Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:15 AM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:38 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ed in Va   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:50 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics ralphfl   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:13 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics bobbutts   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:48 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:58 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics StPeteBill   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:03 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:34 AM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:10 AM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:19 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Bloodstar   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:34 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:01 AM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:24 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:34 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielw   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:41 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:48 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielw   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:51 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:56 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:18 AM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:28 AM TD 26 and 91L danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:09 AM Re: TD 26 and 91L Hugh   Thu Oct 27 2005 07:00 AM Re: TD 26 danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 03:10 AM Tropical Storm BETA danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM Re: Tropical Storm BETA Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:48 AM Re: Tropical Storm BETA Beaumont, TX   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:07 AM Re: Tropical Storm BETA Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:26 AM Re: Tropical Storm BETA Hootowl   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:57 AM Re: Tropical Storm BETA doug   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 AM Re: Tropical Storm BETA Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:43 AM Model Runs danielw   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:08 AM Re: Model Runs typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:20 AM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielw   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:17 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:05 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:07 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielw   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:46 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics CoalCracker   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:45 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielw   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:40 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:50 PM Depression #26 Forms recmod   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM Re: Depression #26 Forms Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:14 AM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:38 PM Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics JMII   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:13 PM

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