Subsidence from the convection in the wave to the NE may also be adversely affecting Beta, or at least may have adversely affected it earlier when the convection was closer to Beta and more intense.
The recon fix is slightly NE of the 18Z position estimate and also seems to be a little NE of where most models were initializing the storm. It still needs to get above 15N before it would stand a chance of missing Nicaragua.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Oct 28 2005 03:08 PM)
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