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Can anyone tell me what the probabilites of Beta hitting the Bay Islands of Honduras are? We live on the eastern end of the island of Roatan, the largest of the bay islands. We got some really bad weather from Wilma and are concerned with Beta moving in now. Just wondering if we should consider evacuating as there is a flight out tomorrow morning we can get on.

It seems like most of the tracking systems still show it going into the mainland of Honduras and staying to the south of us. But the winds have already started to pick up here and have been increasing. Any help or insight would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Justin

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...You should "tentatively" be ok... There is some additional risk until Beta actually succeeds in making the more westward motion that is heavily anticipated by most forecast models and agencies alike..

...You should take note of your local methodogies for quick departure just in case, just to have those available, but right now it looks like you are on the lower end of the probability for being impact directly by this system.

...Current, watches are warning for hurricane Beta (NHC):

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA
PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

...It appears that by this time tomorrow, Beta will be moving WNW if not W... This motion would bring it asshore over the extreme NE Coast of Nicaragua... From there it should move primarily W and begin losing intensity. This decay won't be too fast at first becauas the coastal plain in that area is fairly flat with slow rolling none-affectual hills. However, as it moves west the terrain will become increasingly hostile and taller. Beta is a compact storm so when she does begin to lose intensity, the suspicion is that it will be very quick... However, an extreme rain and flood threat will persist for a number of days, and this may enhance normal rainfall across the Bay Islands N of the Honduras shores - that's a beautiful area by the way!!

...In a nut shell, you probably do not need to evacuate but if you have access to "official" recommendations regarding the matter, I'd suggest you use those! In the meantimes, probably will be an impactor for area well enough S of you - slim margin granted, but S nonetheless...
Good luck!

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Oct 29 2005 12:59 PM)

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