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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!
      Tue Jan 03 2006 09:49 PM

Just walked in the door and just like I've done all season, made a beeline for the computer. The 10pm is out early.

Avila acknowledges Zeta is looking better, but once again the forecast is sticking with 55kts for "continuity." The latest quikscat pass missed both times, so this is reasonable. But in general I think battle fatigue must have set in. You can see on sat imagery that the shear has finally backed off, and as a result Zeta has strengthened enough to make some headway against what is left of the trough, which had been pretty stationary all day, and convection is occuring around the center. Some of the best-formed bands of convection in Zeta's lifetime (now wrapped half-way 'round) show both on sat and on the microwave pass from a couple hours ago.

Zeta is still moving between an area of strong shear to the south and less shear to the northwest. It doesn't appear that there will be any more n'ly component to the direction anytime soon (in fact if Zeta moves any further south they're going to have to readjust the floater image), so Zeta may not be able to take full advantage of the lower shear there, but regardless it seems there is another reason that Zeta will intensify:

Reviewing IR images from the last 24 hours it is clear the recent trough intensified Zeta. The discussion mentions this, but in the context of the oncoming trough, not the one that just passed:

...A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION AIDING INTENSIFICATION...

I'd be interested in hearing the basics of how this occurs (besides the fact that shear often does help develop convection). Does it have to be at a certain height or comparative direction? Because we saw today that the WSWly shear demolished the convection that had been built up by the shear from the trough earlier. What is unique about the shear assoc with a trough?

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark Tue Jan 03 2006 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Lee-Delray   Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Spoken   Tue Jan 03 2006 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ltpat228   Tue Jan 03 2006 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Allison   Tue Jan 03 2006 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Lee-Delray   Tue Jan 03 2006 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ltpat228   Tue Jan 03 2006 08:23 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Tue Jan 03 2006 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Randrew   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Wed Jan 04 2006 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Zeta!?! danielwAdministrator   Wed Jan 04 2006 03:13 AM
. * * Re: Zeta!?! Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Zeta!?! Clark   Wed Jan 04 2006 12:47 PM
. * * Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:25 AM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 eduardo sanchez   Wed Jan 04 2006 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Random Chaos   Wed Jan 04 2006 08:13 PM
. * * [Jaws music] Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 02:27 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Margie   Thu Jan 05 2006 11:48 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Margie   Thu Jan 05 2006 01:57 PM
. * * Are we there yet? Margie   Thu Jan 05 2006 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? eduardo sanchez   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? Lee-Delray   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:57 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:31 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 06:03 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Domino   Thu Jan 05 2006 05:06 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 06:52 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 08:24 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] HanKFranK   Thu Jan 05 2006 11:12 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Not Logged MM   Fri Jan 06 2006 11:28 AM
. * * Brazilian Blob Randrew   Fri Jan 06 2006 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Brazilian Blob HanKFranK   Fri Jan 06 2006 02:03 PM
. * * 2005 Hurricane Season Almost OVER! Storm Hunter   Fri Jan 06 2006 03:28 PM
. * * Ok, everybody...big collective sigh! Margie   Fri Jan 06 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Interesting Season Randrew   Fri Jan 06 2006 04:42 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Random Chaos   Wed Jan 04 2006 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Randrew   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Doombot!   Sun Jan 01 2006 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! HanKFranK   Sun Jan 01 2006 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Sun Jan 01 2006 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Mon Jan 02 2006 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Mon Jan 02 2006 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Mon Jan 02 2006 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Goosus   Tue Jan 03 2006 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! UKCloudgazer   Tue Jan 03 2006 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Jan 02 2006 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! emackl   Fri Dec 30 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ChessieStorm   Fri Dec 30 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Jenny   Fri Dec 30 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Fri Dec 30 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Frog   Sat Dec 31 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! *DELETED* eduardo sanchez   Sat Dec 31 2005 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Sat Dec 31 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! HanKFranK   Sat Dec 31 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Sat Dec 31 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! HanKFranK   Sat Dec 31 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Sun Jan 01 2006 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Doombot!   Sun Jan 01 2006 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Sun Jan 01 2006 09:13 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Rich B   Sun Jan 01 2006 06:47 AM
. * * Modern Marvels TDW   Sun Jan 01 2006 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Sun Jan 01 2006 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Fri Dec 30 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Zeta, we hardly knew ya Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Multi-Decadal Signal   Sat Dec 31 2005 04:22 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ltpat228   Sat Dec 31 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Hugh   Sat Dec 31 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Sat Dec 31 2005 05:25 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Dec 30 2005 12:45 PM

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