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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Typhoon Chanchu bombing
      Sun May 14 2006 11:30 AM Attachment (494 downloads)

Oh brother -- it consolidated a lot quicker than I thought it would. Looks like a Cat 4 now. Check out the latest IR (attached).

Per the latest JTWC prog, intensity may be capped (albeit, at 135kts!) by lack of a good outflow channel. After seeing the GOM storms this past season we all know how important outflow can be in ramping up and maintaining intensity. Also noted that it may have a hard time maintaining that intensity. It appears that regardless it is going to strike Hong Kong area as a very strong storm. I haven't seen anything much about it on our news here, but since they have more warning than we did with Katrina, I hope they are able to to make some good preparations. I just can't get all those images of skyscrapers out of my mind.

* * * * *
The rate of intensity increase looks to have suddenly come to a halt, although the IR is quite symmetric, but it appears on CIMMS upper level wind analysis that an outflow channel is developing, and conditions for the next 12 hours look even better for strengthening, so I still think that late this evening and tomorrow morning we'll be looking at 130kts sustained (1min avg) or more. JMA's intensity forecasts are very much lower than JTWC. Hong Kong Observatory has it curving east towards the Taiwan Straight and missing Hong Kong, but the reliable models show it dead on for Hong Kong, so I hope that people there are getting the right message and preparing.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun May 14 2006 02:19 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Chanchu Domino Sun May 14 2006 11:30 AM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 07:19 AM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Domino   Thu May 11 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Barbiemanila   Fri May 12 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Fri May 12 2006 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Sun May 14 2006 09:52 AM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 03:18 PM
. * * Philippines Aftermath for Chanchu aka Caloy Domino   Sun May 14 2006 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Hannu   Mon May 15 2006 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Deep Surge   Mon May 15 2006 07:07 PM
. * * Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Mon May 15 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters ClarkModerator   Mon May 15 2006 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Deep Surge   Tue May 16 2006 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 07:18 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 05:30 PM
. * * Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu update Margie   Thu May 18 2006 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Hannu   Tue May 16 2006 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing HanKFranK   Sun May 14 2006 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing ClarkModerator   Mon May 15 2006 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Mon May 15 2006 10:16 AM
. * * lesser storm HanKFranK   Mon May 15 2006 03:35 PM
. * * Re: lesser storm malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Mon May 15 2006 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Tue May 16 2006 12:19 AM
. * * Chanchu is done Margie   Mon May 15 2006 08:12 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 11:24 PM
. * * Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri May 12 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Domino   Fri May 12 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy hockeyucf   Thu May 11 2006 12:22 PM

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