FLHurricane.com: TS Chanchu

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities

Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing
Mon May 15 2006 10:16 AM Attachment (343 downloads)

Ok I found out that the water temps are very cold this early in the season (image attached) and there isn't much heat potential above about 16 or 17N. This must be why the models showed the transition to ET.

So...definitely the colder temps are having an effect, especially with the slower speed, and that is why the disappearing convection to the north, and why it did not appear to be terribly sheared on sat images.

Regarding the prev posting ("HK is a concrete jungle...not a collection of wooden beach houses on a sandy shore. Secondly, the storms over here do not get near as strong as they can in the Gulf. ").

The northern Gulf Coast is is home to many people who live in permanent housing, not "beach houses." It has been populated for over 200 years. The surge went a considerable distance inland, not just on the beachfront. The idea that there was so much destruction because there were no permanent structures is completely wrong. There was so much destruction, because surge can cause so much destruction.

Chanchu is evidence that storms do get as strong there as in the GOM. It is just early in the season and the water temps are not as warm, so that strength couldn't be maintained above 20N. That does not mean Hong Kong is impervious to strong TC, and the "forest of skyscrapers" is particularly vulnerable to winds, which are stronger above the ground. It is always best to plan for the worst case when the outcome is not certain.

Warning #28 is out and the official track is shifted along with NOGAPS to the east of Hong Kong, putting them on the back side of the typhoon, which is now looking to make landfall around Shanwei, around 8 or 9 pm local time on Wednesday evening.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TS Chanchu	Domino	Mon May 15 2006 10:16 AM
Re: TS Chanchu	Domino	Thu May 11 2006 07:19 AM
Re: TS Chanchu	Domino	Thu May 11 2006 11:37 AM
Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy	Domino	Thu May 11 2006 11:45 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy	Barbiemanila	Fri May 12 2006 10:16 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy	Margie	Fri May 12 2006 11:11 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun May 14 2006 08:24 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy	Margie	Sun May 14 2006 09:52 AM
Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Margie	Sun May 14 2006 11:30 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Margie	Sun May 14 2006 03:18 PM
Philippines Aftermath for Chanchu aka Caloy	Domino	Sun May 14 2006 03:37 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Tiff	Sun May 14 2006 03:11 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Margie	Sun May 14 2006 03:32 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Tiff	Sun May 14 2006 04:20 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Margie	Sun May 14 2006 04:35 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Hannu	Mon May 15 2006 05:43 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Deep Surge	Mon May 15 2006 07:07 PM
Chanchu in cool waters	Margie	Mon May 15 2006 09:02 PM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters	Clark	Mon May 15 2006 11:59 PM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters	Deep Surge	Tue May 16 2006 12:49 AM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters	Margie	Tue May 16 2006 07:18 AM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters	Margie	Tue May 16 2006 10:05 AM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters	Margie	Tue May 16 2006 10:17 AM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters	Margie	Tue May 16 2006 10:18 AM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters	Margie	Tue May 16 2006 05:30 PM
Chanchu update	malt-teaser	Wed May 17 2006 01:18 PM
Re: Chanchu update	Margie	Thu May 18 2006 11:22 PM
Re: Chanchu update	malt-teaser	Wed May 17 2006 01:21 PM
Re: Chanchu in cool waters	Hannu	Tue May 16 2006 06:52 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Tiff	Sun May 14 2006 04:48 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun May 14 2006 06:01 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	HanKFranK	Sun May 14 2006 11:01 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Margie	Sun May 14 2006 10:50 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Clark	Mon May 15 2006 02:03 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Margie	Mon May 15 2006 10:16 AM
lesser storm	HanKFranK	Mon May 15 2006 03:35 PM
Re: lesser storm	malt-teaser	Mon May 15 2006 05:15 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	alyssum	Mon May 15 2006 08:53 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	malt-teaser	Mon May 15 2006 04:54 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	alyssum	Tue May 16 2006 12:19 AM
Chanchu is done	Margie	Mon May 15 2006 08:12 AM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Tiff	Sun May 14 2006 11:00 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing	Margie	Sun May 14 2006 11:24 PM
Have handheld weather station, will travel?	Margie	Fri May 12 2006 12:49 PM
Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri May 12 2006 05:26 PM
Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel?	Margie	Fri May 12 2006 06:50 PM
Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel?	Domino	Fri May 12 2006 08:28 PM
Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy	hockeyucf	Thu May 11 2006 12:22 PM

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