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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
cross-cut
      Sat May 27 2006 06:22 PM

aletta as entered a world that isn't fully ready to let it thrive. just like late yesterday the center of the storm has swirled out west of the main convective area, while the general motion of the storm has been hopscotching northeastward over the last day or two. with that jet still northwest of the storm i doubt this center will survive as is, and a new one will likely reform just as it already has twice, underneath the cdo. the current forecast philosophy looks about right, though i do think it will wander inland and die, rather than brush the coast and take off westward when the upper sw flow lets go and the ridging to the north strengthens. i don't think aletta will get stronger than about 50mph.
now, if the upper jet relaxes sooner, it'll probably start westward early and miss the coast. in that case it could get a little stronger.
there's a wave coming across panama/costa rica on the back side of aletta. if it rides up a little on the itcz there's a chance it will start festering behind the lead storm. models not too excited over this prospect as of now.
don't see the atlantic doing much for the next week or two.
HF 2322z27may

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Invest 91E is up Margie Sat May 27 2006 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91E is up Spoken   Wed May 24 2006 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91E is up ClarkModerator   Wed May 24 2006 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91E is up danielwAdministrator   Wed May 24 2006 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91E is up ClarkModerator   Wed May 24 2006 11:13 PM
. * * 91E consolidating HanKFranK   Thu May 25 2006 03:30 PM
. * * Re: 91E consolidating ClarkModerator   Thu May 25 2006 08:48 PM
. * * Made my week Margie   Fri May 26 2006 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Made my week ClarkModerator   Fri May 26 2006 02:14 PM
. * * And now, back to our regularly-scheduled programming. Margie   Fri May 26 2006 02:45 PM
. * * poking along HanKFranK   Sat May 27 2006 02:22 AM
. * * Re: poking along Deep Surge   Sat May 27 2006 03:46 AM
. * * Re: poking along CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat May 27 2006 10:27 AM
. * * Re: poking along Margie   Sat May 27 2006 11:05 AM
. * * 11am -- Aletta Margie   Sat May 27 2006 01:57 PM
. * * cross-cut HanKFranK   Sat May 27 2006 06:22 PM
. * * Re: cross-cut NONAME   Sun May 28 2006 10:28 AM
. * * Re: cross-cut Deep Surge   Sun May 28 2006 04:55 PM
. * * Aletta danielwAdministrator   Mon May 29 2006 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Aletta Margie   Mon May 29 2006 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Aletta Margie   Mon May 29 2006 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Aletta danielwAdministrator   Mon May 29 2006 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Aletta Storm Cooper   Mon May 29 2006 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Aletta Deep Surge   Mon May 29 2006 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Aletta danielwAdministrator   Mon May 29 2006 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Aletta Margie   Mon May 29 2006 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Aletta ClarkModerator   Tue May 30 2006 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Aletta Margie   Mon May 29 2006 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Aletta danielwAdministrator   Mon May 29 2006 09:27 PM
. * * Re: 91E consolidating amonty   Thu May 25 2006 04:13 PM
. * * Re: 91E consolidating ClarkModerator   Thu May 25 2006 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91E is up Spoken   Wed May 24 2006 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Invest 91E is up ShanaTX   Tue May 23 2006 03:37 PM

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