FLHurricane.com: Beryl at 5pm?

Agreed...the convection has been peeled back off the LLC. I can think of a couple reasons why. As the trough approached, the water vapor loop shows some of that very dry air from the southwest was pulled back up and towards the circulation. But primarily it appears the approaching trough might have been enhancing convection earlier, and now is destroying it, same as what happened earlier in the season to Alberto.

Also at the same time, it looks like the LLC has started that curve towards the NW (good call by Stacy this morning, huh), pulling it closer to the oncoming shortwave and possibly hastening the effects.

Wind and seas have been picking up at buoy 41001, which has been in the NE quad of the circulation, pretty far away from the center, but still just under the edge of the remaining convection. Winds up to a steady 23 kts and seas 10 ft.

* * * * * *

This is Avila's diagnosis, from the discussion:

IT SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Tue Jul 18 2006 10:37 PM)

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