It will be interesting to see how the evolution of TD 6 & the synoptic environment plays out over the next few days. There's pretty good agreement on enough ridging to send TD 6/likely eventual Florence westward in the general direction of the Bahamas, but what happens after that is still up in the air. I'm seeing a lot of tendencies for disturbances to continually butt up against the western side of the building ridge, but nothing to completely break it down as they all ride along its northern periphery.
While strong storms have a greater proclivity to find weaknesses in a ridge, they also generally have a greater proclivity to diabatically enhance them through warming aloft with their outflow. I have a feeling that the ultimate track of this one is going to depend heavily on how much of a disturbance can slide across the NE US toward the western edge of that ridge as the storm gets in that vicinity. That could be the difference between a landfall in the southeast, or a track up the coast and out to sea. We've had three storms already sorta ride the coast this year, and while I'm not one to put a lot of stock into the idea of "once a channel is set up for storms to follow, they all tend to do so throughout the season" -- it's not out of the realm of possibility that this one eventually does the same. Question is, where? Thankfully there is the whole week ahead to figure that out.
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Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.
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