Well CPC in there update today thinks different and believes El Nino will be around atleast threw may...
Here is a part of there discussion...
Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate that SST anomalies are near their peak and that decreasing anomalies are likely during February-May 2007 (Fig. 5). Recent observed trends in the upper ocean tend to support those forecasts. Decreasing upper-ocean heat content in the central equatorial Pacific has been progressing east in association with the upwelling portion of the most recent Kelvin wave. In the absence of any further Kelvin wave activity, the upper-ocean heat content should return to near average in a few months. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook, given the resurgence of MJO activity in late December 2006. It is possible that the enhanced precipitation phase of the MJO, which is currently entering the western tropical Pacific, might trigger a more persistent pattern of cloudiness and precipitation over the anomalously warm waters of the central equatorial Pacific during the next several weeks. If that occurs, then the equatorial easterlies over the central Pacific will likely weaken possibly leading to the initiation of a fifth Kelvin wave.
TODAY'S CPC UPDATE
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: 2006/2007
Edit
Reply
Quote
