FLHurricane.com: Questions on El Nino

What can we expect SSTs(Sea Surface Temperature's) to do in the coming months? NOAA's SST forecast for the peak months of hurricane season (August, September, and October) projects a continuation of the above-normal SSTs at about 0.5 �C above normal. This is a lot of extra energy to fuel intense hurricanes, but not nearly as extreme as the 1-2 �C above normal SSTs observed in 2005. While it is impossible to predict what the trade winds might do over the next few months, a sustained weakening of the trade winds for many months is an event that is unlikely.

The next key question is--what will the steering pattern be for 2007? Will there be a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that recurves storms out to sea, as happened in 2006? Or, will a ridge of high pressure set up, steering hurricanes into the Caribbean, Florida, and U.S. Gulf coast, as happened in 2004 and 2005?
A lot of uncertainties at this current time but we know one thing for sure, La Nina is back ...
It will be an interesting season to say the least!

(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum. Note that the questions that you ask would be difficult for even a seasoned meteorologist to answer with any degree of accuracy. Final pattern development is still a few months away.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Mar 09 2007 05:49 PM)

Post Extras