The GFS model and a few of the other models have been hinting at a possible Tropical system forming in the Western Caribbean. Hit and miss in the model runs for the last 7 days.
The Caribbean Forecast Discussion has been hinting at an Eastern Pacific system... possibly crossing Central America and moving into the Caribbean Sea. Again, just an honorable mention in the discussions.
While I haven't checked the surface observations. The preliminary satellite observations would certainly suggest that minimal wind shear is present at 4 AM EDT-Saturday. (08Z)
This is an image that was posted on the morning of May 20th. A 216 hour forecast!
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Generated May 8, 2024, 9:42:59 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center