FLHurricane.com: My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground.

8pm EDT Update- Convection continues to increase in areas of the disturbance. The System still looking good on Radar. The system will continue drifting NE over the next 24 hours. Shear is still strong in that area athough it's still forecasted to drop by Monday and that will help with slow development.

6:15pm EDT Uptate- Little bits of Convction has flared up over the past hour and if this system orginizes we could well see a Tropical Depression by Tomorrow. The Steering Currents are still weak so movent will be slow and to a NNE direction. The system is moving into an area of 30-50kts of wind shear which will cause problems int he development. Shear is still forecast to drop by Monday.

5:03pm EDT Update- SSD has a floater on the area of disturbed weather in the caribbean and has labled it 'Invest'. Normally after this happens the NRL has it up.

3pm EDT Update- Here we go watching the SW Caribbean again. A LLC circulation has formed over the SW Caribbean which has been gaining convection albeit in small amounts ever since this morning. Wind Shear in that area is around 5-30 knots with stronger shear to the North East. Steering Currents are extreamly weak over that area which will keep the LLC from moving and Wind Shear IS forecasted to drop significantly. We will no doubt see some VERY slow development into a Tropical Depression in the next coming days with the possible formation of Tropical Storm Barry.

Invest Area Rainbow Enhancement
Figure 1: Rainbow Image of 'Invest'
image Credit: NOAA

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Parameters
Figure 2: Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation
Image Credit: NOAA.
My predictions of Tropical Cyclone Formation from this system in the next couple of days are:

Tropical Depression-85%
Tropical Storm- 65%
Hurricane-45%

Edited by danielw (Sat May 26 2007 11:39 PM)

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